TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In a new poll released on Friday (Sept. 1), nearly half of respondents support Taiwan independence, and of those who do, 58% are adamant "Taiwan will be independent in the future."

In the latest survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF, 台灣民意基金會), participants were asked whether they support Taiwan independence or unification with China. The poll found:

• 48.9% of respondents support independence


• 11.8% opted for unification


• 26.9% selected to maintain the status quo


• 12.3% had no opinion, did not know, or refused to answer

TPOF Chair You Ying-long (游盈隆) said that median voters mainly fall into the category of "maintaining the status quo but favoring Taiwan independence." In the upcoming presidential election, whoever can take the lead in occupying this position will be able to gain more voter support, You said.

The poll further investigated the strength of attitudes toward unification and independence. The results showed that among the 48.9% who chose "Taiwan will be independent in the future," 58.4% were adamant, and 41.6% agreed but were not adamant, while among the 11.8% who chose "cross-strait unification in the future," 22.1% were adamant, and 77.9% agreed but were not adamant.

Based on these findings, it can be inferred that:

• 28.6% are adamant about future Taiwan independence


• 20.3% favor but are not adamant about future Taiwan independence


• 2.6% are adamant about future cross-strait unification


• 9.2% are in favor but are not adamant about cross-strait unification

You said in the 2008 presidential election when Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) ran as the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, he adopted the stance of "no unification, no independence, and no force." In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate adopted the line of "maintaining the status quo."

The actual connotations of the two positions are similar, as they both have consciously or unconsciously sought to appeal to median voters, with both winning their respective elections, said You.

You said that in regard to the 2024 presidential election, Lai Ching-te (賴清德) said the handling of cross-strait relations "will continue Tsai Ing-wen's four commitments." He added he would continue the policy of "maintaining the status quo" if elected, hoping to win the favor of median voters.

In contrast, Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) and Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) have relatively vague positions in this regard and have put less emphasis on it, according to You.

This could be one of the factors why Lai's level of public support is stable and significantly ahead, said You. Empirical evidence shows that Lai has the support of more independent voters, he added.

The TPOF survey was conducted from Aug 14-15, with adults aged 20 and over. The poll gathered valid responses via telephone on both landlines and mobile phones from 1,081 adults and had a sampling error of plus or minus 2.98 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%.