TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Kuomintang’s (KMT) candidate in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election, Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜), has squeaked into second place in the polls after months stuck in third.
My Formosa released the poll results on Thursday (Aug. 17). The figures show Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) remains the clear frontrunner in the race.
Lai received 35.7% support, followed by Hou with 21.9% (up from 19.9% in July), and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) with 21.7% (down from 24%).
The difference between Ko and Hou’s support is well within the poll’s sampling error of ±2.8%. However, the result will likely be a relief to the KMT, whose candidate has consistently polled behind the TPP, a party with only a fraction of its membership.
(Taiwan News image)
In addition to being the most popular candidate nationwide, Lai received the most support in each of Taiwan’s 22 administrative localities individually. Meanwhile, support for Ko and Hou differed substantially depending on the area.
Hou received over 11% more support than Ko in New Taipei City, where he is currently serving as mayor, and was nearly 8% more than Ko in Kaohsiung and Pingtung. Conversely, in Taichung, Changhua, and Nantou he was slightly more than 12% behind Ko.
Across Keelung, Yilan, Hualien, Tatung, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, Hou received 10% less support than Ko. The poll also found that of the 1,201 respondents polled, just over 20% would either not vote in the election, or did not express a clear preference.
Ko polled best among young voters, and received 32.5% and 36.5% support among 20-29 and 30-39-year-olds respectively, compared with Lai’s 28.2% and 31.7%, and Hou’s 13.5% and 17.3%. Lai received the most support among older voters, with 43.7% and 45.7% of voters in the 60-69 and over 70-year-old age brackets pledging their support for the DPP candidate.
Poll results show the TPP's Ko Wen-je (pictured) slip behind the KMT's Hou Yu-ih in the polls. (CNA photo)
Ko’s was not a popular choice among older voters, with 9.1% and 3.4% support in the 60-69 and over 70-year-old age brackets respectively. Hou did slightly better in the same age bracket, but failed to surpass 10% support among 60-69 year olds, and polled at 3.4% for the over 70s.
The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) also released a poll on Thursday that surveyed Taiwan’s appetite for Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) to launch a bid for the presidency. Of the 1,081 respondents polled, 41.5% said they had a positive view of the prospect, while 45.9% said they did not.
TPOF Chair You Ying-lung (游盈隆) said people likely have different reasons for wanting Gou to run for president. For DPP supporters, You said it may be driven by a sense of schadenfreude, while others may genuinely want him to stand for office.
Taiwan’s presidential election is conducted using a first past the post electoral system that requires a candidate to secure a simple majority to win. Given Gou’s affiliation with the KMT and strong anti-DPP politics, Gou declaring himself as a candidate would likely split the “blue” vote.