TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In an interview with Taiwan News released on Monday (Aug. 14), retired U.S. Air Force Foreign Area Officer Guermantes Lailari said that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is looking for leverage to compel the U.S. to stop its training of Taiwan's military and weapons shipment to the country.

Lailari pointed out several indicators that the PLA might take limited action against Taiwan in mid-August, though he does not believe China will attempt a full-on invasion or blockade. With the U.S. fleet temporarily far from Taiwan, Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) in Paraguay while transiting in the U.S., and U.S. President Biden meeting with Japan Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol for the Camp David Summit on Aug. 18, Lailari said the timing could potentially be advantageous for the PLA to carry out a small military operation around Taiwan, possibly taking a small island such as Dongsha Island.

As of Monday, Lailari noted the Reagan Carrier Strike Group, including the USS Reagan aircraft carrier, is now off the east coast of Taiwan. The Royal Australian Navy also has its HMAS Canberra (L02) in the West Philippine Sea, providing potential defense of Taiwan should the need arise.

However, Lailari said that in the West Philippine Sea, the PLA Navy is simultaneously pulling away assets that could come to Taiwan’s aid. For example, if the U.S. Coast Guard is busy helping the Philippines defend itself against aggressive Chinese fishing vessels, Lailari said it could mean less attention focused on Taiwan.

The countries with the strongest alliances with the U.S. in the Indo Pacific are Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. According to Lailari, although none of these countries want to face China, if the U.S. supports Taiwan, other countries are more likely to follow.

When asked about other islands the PLA might attempt to occupy besides Dongsha Island, Lailari said islands such as Kinmen and Matsu would be unlikely due to their friendly commercial relations with China and the tourist trade. However, unlike other disputed islands which have multiple claimants, Dongsha is only claimed by Taiwan and China, making it less complicated for Beijing if it were to invade, and its location, 400 km (250 mi) south of Taiwan, provides the PLA strategic entrance into the Taiwan Strait, added Lailari.

If the PLA does not attack Taiwan in mid-August, Lailari said another possible window is in November, when President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has been invited to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Lailari said China needs an excuse or propaganda before launching any sort of attack in response to a violation of its One China Principle.

Lailari observed that the PLA has created a pattern of deception, where every time Taiwan sends or receives senior leaders to or from the U.S. or another country, it conducts a military exercise. However, he warned that an exercise could soon be converted to an official military operation.

Lailari said that he hopes his assessment of the current situation is wrong, but if his warning is right, his hope is that the U.S., Japan, and other countries can act quickly to preserve Taiwan.

Watch the full Taiwan News interview with Guermantes Lailari on YouTube.