Update: A very well-informed lawyer contacted me to point out that serving as both vice president and premier is no longer allowed and was later ruled unconstitutional. Apologies.
TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Polling shows most people want a change of ruling party after the January elections, but the opposition is split between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), with Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) acting very much like he is planning on entering the race.
KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫) said if the non-green opponents of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) don’t unite behind one candidate, the DPP candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) will “win the election lying down.”
TPP Chair and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) said if Gou runs, his own chances of winning would be “zero” and Lai would “100% be elected.” Polling shows Gou draws most supporters from Ko’s camp.
Ko has reason to be concerned. In polling that includes Gou, while support for his run draws supporters from all three of the currently declared candidates, he draws the most from Ko’s camp.
The TPP claims their internal polling has both Ko and Lai at over 30% and within the margin of error of each other. Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜), the KMT candidate, is below 20%. Most public polling has Lai ahead at about 35%, with Ko in the mid-to-upper 20s and Hou in the upper teens.
Ko has a difficult but possible path to winning and needs to convince more undecided voters and some Hou supporters to back him strategically. This is how the TPP won the Hsinchu City mayoral race last November, when many KMT supporters realized their candidate had no hope and threw their support behind the TPP candidate.
If Gou enters the race, he will take away some of Ko’s potential margin of victory. It would only take a few percentage points to block Ko’s chances of closing the gap.
A numbers game
Things can change in the next five months to election day, but one thing is certain: The less divided the opposition to Lai is, the easier it would be to beat him.
Chu has often talked of uniting the opposition, but insists Hou is running to the end. Gou has been calling for a “mainstream public opinion grand alliance,” but without specifying how or who would lead it.
Ko has not ruled out cooperation, but he will not accept any deal that makes him anything other than the top of the ticket. That makes sense, as Ko has been running second behind Lai in most polling for months.
There are four other reasons Ko needs to remain at the top. He wants to establish the TPP as a separate, unique party with its own “DNA.” Cooperating too closely with the KMT would weaken the brand and confuse the public.
Another reason is that a presidential candidate is the best advertising for the party. If voters like what they see in Ko, they are more likely to vote for his legislative candidates.
Also, 34 seats in the legislature are reserved for a vote by party and the party list vote is crucial to Ko’s hopes of getting resources to compete with bigger parties. The government subsidizes parties that get more than 3.5% of the party list vote NT$50 per vote.
Path to unity
Depending on turnout and vote share, looking at current numbers, it’s possible that the TPP could qualify for NT$150 million to NT$200 million. With those resources, it would be easier to get business donors to boost the party coffers.
The TPP is cooperating with the KMT in some districts by not running candidates against each other. In other districts they are both running candidates.
How could the opposition reduce the number of candidates running against Lai?
The big question is whether Gou will join the race. He is doing everything a candidate would do, but he may look at the polls and decide he has no shot.
It’s also possible Gou is trying to influence or make a deal with other candidates rather than run himself. He could also be angling for some sort of deal or arrangement that gives him considerable power.
We know Ko will run to the end as TPP’s candidate, but he might take Gou or Hou as his vice president. There is precedent for a multi-party ticket.
Second fiddle
However, it is hard to imagine Gou or KMT accepting second place to Ko and his smaller TPP. There is one thing Ko might offer Gou that could sway him.
That would be to make Gou his vice president and premier if they win. There is precedent for this as well, as in 1996 then-premier Lien Chan (連戰) was also vice president — and after winning the election for a time served in both roles concurrently.
Ko might make this offer only to eliminate Gou’s threat and keep his campaign viable. Ko has said his ideal vice president would be a woman from central or southern Taiwan with a business or finance background.
Gou would strengthen Ko’s ticket. Polling shows he gains several points with him on board, cutting Lai’s lead significantly.
It’s also possible the flailing Hou campaign might make such an offer to Gou. Again, it is doubtful Hou would want Gou on board because he would not attract many new votes, but would only do so to keep Gou from taking votes from him.
Registration for a presidential run is from Sept. 13 to 17, so any deals will have to be made by then.
