TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — There is a standard playbook for Taiwanese presidential candidates in which they embark on a “listening” tour of the nation, hold campaign-style events, and meet with local politicians to ensure their support in getting out the ground game.
They hire experienced hands for their campaign team. They attend religious events and pray in temples. They visit the United States and sometimes Japan to bolster their foreign policy credentials. They release a book.
They comment on current events, post grand-sounding musings and release policy platforms and ideas on Facebook with campaign-style graphics. They supercharge their Instagram feed to reach out to younger voters.
Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) checks all of those boxes, but has not formally announced he is running.
He has said that Taiwan needs to change and “I won’t let everybody down.” In another speech he said: “Let someone who has a grasp on the economy, who can make money, be of service to everyone.”
He even posted emojis of a ballot box, a tiger, a heart and a Republic of China flag. He was born in the year of the tiger and seems to identify with them.
Either he is running for president, or this is an elaborate negotiating position to get something from either the Kuomintang (KMT) or the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Both parties have good reasons to work with him, and good reasons not to, as we will explore in an upcoming column.
So far, most polling shows Gou last in a four-way race with him mostly in the 12% to 16% range. That initially may not look good, but it is not bad for someone not even declared as a formal candidate either.
When would he declare?
Guo is one of Taiwan’s richest men, is well known for his business prowess, has some scandals in his past, can be thin-skinned, and earned the nickname “Genghis Khan.” His platform, which includes plans to stop buying American arms, building up a domestic defense industry, including an 80,000 strong “robot army,” and plans for relations with China, which would lay the groundwork for Taiwan’s annexation.
There is considerable speculation as to when he will announce, assuming he is going to run. Some speculate that it will be at his book launch on Taiwan’s Father’s Day on August 8. The book is entitled “Papa Gou: 30 memos written to give to young people.”
Others speculate that he might declare on the 65th anniversary of the 823 Artillery Bombardment of Kinmen. This would be in character, and ties in closely with his “Kinmen Peace Proclamation” on relations with China.
Strategically, I think it would make sense to wait until the last minute. Presidential tickets need to be registered between September 13 and 17. That would give him the most flexibility and would leave open the option of a deal with the KMT or TPP.
Most people seem to think he will run as an independent, but that would be a strategic mistake. For several reasons, it makes more sense, plus his actions and the actions of some others suggest to me that is what he plans.
Join the party
Whether he runs as an independent, or at the head of a brand new party, he is still going to have to get around 290,000 qualified signatures, which means in practice he will need to get well over 300,000 to cover disqualifications. Organizing this under the auspices of a political party, with recognizable logos and imagery makes this somewhat easier.
It would also mean there would be a good chance he could get some lawmakers into the legislature. Any party winning 5% on the party list vote gets legislators, and if he manages to get three, they can form a caucus.
That would mean that even if he did not win the presidency, he would still have a direct say in politics. Another bonus is that if his party won over 3.5% of the vote, the party would be eligible for subsidies of NT$50 per vote.
Also, there is a good chance it would get enough votes that the party could nominate him next time without having to collect signatures. I also suspect being the head of a political party would appeal to Gou personally.
That it would make strategic sense does not necessarily mean he will set up a new party. He has recently made references to voting for individuals rather than parties, though that was in the context of supporting an independent candidate running for mayor of Beitou Township in a by-election in Changhua County.
Domino effect?
Changhua has recently been a focus regarding speculation of a Gou run. The Changhua County Council Speaker Hsieh Dian-lin (謝典林), widely assumed to be a Gou supporter, abruptly quit the KMT on July 31.
This was a bombshell in political circles, as Hsieh comes from a long-standing political family and whose sister is a legislator and KMT party official. In the Facebook post announcing his decision, he noted that he had been thinking about it for a week.
That meant that he started thinking about leaving right after the KMT party congress that formally nominated Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) as the party’s candidate. Similarly, his counterpart in Nantou left the KMT in May after the party named Hou as the candidate.
Gou has carefully cultivated relationships with council speakers and local patronage faction leaders. It’s doubtful that it is coincidence that these are the same people who run the best get-out-the-vote ground games. He has spent far more time with these leaders than Hou has.
Kinmen legislator and prominent Gou supporter Jennifer Chen (陳玉珍) has publicly estimated that 80% of KMT county and city council speakers support Gou. Anonymous sources inside the party told Next Apple Media that it is probably more like 60% to 70%, while another source told the same outlet that probably only two or three still support Hou.
Whatever the true number, there are fears in the KMT of a domino effect, with others following suit and quitting the party. They still hold 14 speaker positions, though two are going to be replaced soon due to legal issues.
James Soong 2.0
If Gou does set up a new party, he could provide a home for these politicians, and more might join as well, possibly including lawmakers like Chen. If this were to happen and it was stocked with former KMT politicians, it would be the fourth significant KMT splinter party over the years.
The one it would likely resemble most would be the People’s First Party (PFP), which in the early 2000s was a significant force and for a time was more popular than the KMT. A “Terry Gou Party” would risk suffering from the same problem that the PFP did, it was too dominated and centered around the party’s founder, James Soong (宋楚瑜).
