TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A cross-strait conflict simulation exposed gaps in the U.S. and Japan’s communication and readiness to defend Taiwan, two participating former U.S. officials said in a Nikkei interview.
The Japan Forum for Strategic Studies (JFSS) convened Japanese and U.S. military experts in mid-July to simulate a blockade of Taiwan by China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA). Taiwanese defense scholars were also invited to Tokyo to attend the two-day tabletop exercise as observers.
The response largely focused on battlefield management and collaborative defense measures. This reflects Japan’s shifting foreign policy toward Taiwan following the notion, “A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance,” first asserted by former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in 2021.
During the wargames, one scenario simulated a PLA military invasion of Taiwan that involved an attack on Japanese territory. In this context, the PLA landed on the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyutai Islands in Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands in China.
America was represented by the former head of the Office of Japan Affairs at the U.S. State Department, Kevin Maher. Reflecting on the game’s outcomes, Maher said, "In my lessons learned, one of those was the slowness in the decision-making process. That just really weakens the deterrence effectiveness.”
Tokyo must first declare the situation an “armed attack” against Japan for the U.S. to involve itself in any military response, Maher said. However, if Japan avoids the designation to avoid conflict, it “ties the U.S. hands,” he said.
In the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, which took effect in 1960, Article 5 stipulates that both sides recognize "an armed attack against either party in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and safety," and that both "would act to meet the common danger." Maher said the treaty’s true intention is for Japan to join forces with the U.S. to defend itself.
Since the Senkakus are under the administrative control of Japan, the treaty would therefore enter into force. However, according to Maher, "We had to wait for the Japanese prime minister, in the scenario - two weeks - to say that this is an armed attack on Japan.”
Meanwhile, former East Asia director at the U.S. National Security Council (NSC) Christopher Johnstone shared, "I would say it seemed to us that Japan was, number one, concerned about escalating the situation.” However, acknowledging the situation’s precarity, Johnstone added, "It's a huge decision” for the Japanese, and even for the U.S., "striking mainland China is a big decision."
"There is sometimes a period of time while the U.S. considers targets, thinks about how to generate the maximum effect, and then strikes," Johnstone said. The risk of worsening the situation or triggering a retaliatory strike would also be considered in a U.S. contingency.
Johnstone called for a trilateral coordination mechanism among Japan, the U.S., and Taiwan, which would help decide roles in a conflict. "If you wait until a crisis starts, it's too late to create such a mechanism, so we should think about creating it now," he said.
According to Johnstone, “There was no discussion about Japan's role, beyond defending its own territory,” but "U.S. expectations for a Japanese role, beyond the defense of Japan, will be quite high."
During the wargames, Taiwan was represented by Lai I-chung (賴怡忠), president of the Prospect Foundation, a Taipei think tank. Lai observed the ways Japanese officials take different factors into consideration before making decisions, which he commented is contrary to the perception among some Taiwanese officials that Taipei would simply follow the U.S.’ directions.
Lai also said that a security mechanism for communications between Taiwan and Japan was “almost nonexistent.” Lai noted that efforts such as civilian evacuation during the simulation were ad hoc, leading to many difficulties.
On the Japanese side, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker Kihara Minoru said that although Japan and the U.S. have an alliance, the gaps in communication arose from the absence of official diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Japan. Minoru said various exchanges instead had to be conducted in an unofficial capacity through the Japan-ROC Diet Members’ Consultative Council.