TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Just as Typhoon Doksuri prepares to leave the waters off Taiwan for China, Tropical Storm Khanun (卡努) has formed, and northern Taiwan is in its cone of uncertainty.
On Friday (July 28), Tropical Storm Khanun formed to the west of Guam. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) predicts that Khanun will turn north-northwest in the coming days and approach the coast of central China on Tuesday and Wednesday (Aug. 1 and 2).
Khanun's projected path has it passing through the waters to the north of Taiwan. However, the southern section of the cone of uncertainty has the tropical storm making landfall in north Taiwan.
JTWC map of Khanun's forecast path. (JTWC image)
CWB forecaster Liu Yu-chi (劉宇其) was cited by TVBS as saying Khanun, the sixth tropical storm of the year, formed early Friday morning. Liu said Khanun is about 2,100 km east-southeast of Taiwan the cone of uncertainty is quite wide, so it is too early to determine whether the tropical storm will strike Taiwan directly.
JMA map of Khanun's forecast path. (JMA image)
Meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮) said that Khanun is currently trending on a path towards the Yangtze River estuary in China, and it is expected to pass north of Taiwan on Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Wu said the chance of Khanun directly threatening Taiwan is not high, but it is possible it will introduce more southwest winds, atmospheric moisture, and rain to Taiwan in the second half of next week and subsequent changes in its path need to be monitored.
Wu said the latest European model shows that there will still be heavy rain and gusts in Taiwan on Friday morning, but the wind and rain will gradually ease in the afternoon. Wu said the temperatures on the plains in various regions will be as follows on Friday: 24 to 33 Celsius in the north, 24 to 33 C in the center, 23 to 34 C in the south, and 22 to 24 C in the east.
European ensemble model of Khanun's projected paths. (Weathernerds.org image)
He forecast that from Saturday to Monday (July 29-31), the weather will improve across the country and atmospheric conditions will stabilize. However, from Tuesday to Thursday (Aug. 1-3), localized heavy thunderstorms are possible due to the arrival of moisture and southwesterly winds from Tropical Storm Khanun.
Wu said the latest CWB model shows that Tropical Storm Khanun will generally head northwest, passing through the waters near Ryukyu, and rush toward the mouth of the Yangtze River. He cautioned that the cone of uncertainty is large and includes northern Taiwan.
U.S. ensemble model of Khanun's projected paths. (Weathernerds.org image)
The meteorologist said the latest European model shows the average path is similar to that of the CWB. Wu closed by quipping, "Will Khanun strike Taiwan? It's too early to say!"
