TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Democratic Progressive Party candidate for the 2024 Taiwan presidential election Lai Ching-te (賴清德) remains the favorite among voters according to a new poll released Tuesday (July 25).
The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) poll showed the DPP’s Lai with 36.4% support, followed by the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) with 27.8%, and the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) with 20.2%.
All candidates retained their respective places compared to previous TPOF results, though some slight changes in support appeared compared to June’s survey. Lai lost 0.1% support, Hou lost 0.2%, while Ko lost a slightly larger 1.3% compared to June’s poll.
TPOF pollster Yinglong You (游盈隆) pointed out that despite the perception that Ko was gaining support in the polls, especially after the 716 rally, the TPP candidate actually shed the most support out of any.
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The candidates’ support is mostly consistent with a My-Formosa poll released at the beginning of June that showed each candidate in the same positions. Each were also within 1% of their TPOF result, with the exception of Hou, who polled at 17.1% in the My Formosa poll compared to 20.2% in the TPOF poll.
Despite KMT candidate Hou remaining in third, the KMT is still voters’ second most preferred party, with 23.3% support, behind the DPP with 32.2% and ahead of the TPP with 17.4%.
While June’s TPOF poll showed a surge for minor parties, the latest poll saw that support drop to 4.5% combined. Also, those who indicated no party alignment grew from 17.5% to just under 23% between June and July.
TPOF also asked respondents who they would vote for if the same three candidates were running against a fourth candidate, Terry Gou, as an independent. Despite some speculation around the KMT swapping out Hou for Gou given the former’s poor polling, the results with Gou in the race placed the Foxconn founder in last, and did not change the relative positions of the other candidates.
The poll also surveyed respondents' preferences for certain candidates in relation to protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty, cross-strait relations, ability to govern, and personal likeability.
Like the presidential opinion polls, respondents were asked to choose from Lai, Ko, or Hou, and Lai scored best in all categories. However, the poll showed stark differences in respondents’ faith in Lai’s ability to manage different issues.
The poll showed 43.4% said they believed Lai could best protect Taiwan’s sovereignty (compared to 19% for Ko and 16% for Hou), while only 28.4% said they believed Lai was the best candidate when it came to cross strait issues.
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On cross-strait issues, voters’ faith in Lai was closest to the other candidates. The TPOF survey showed 25.3% of voters said they believed Ko had the best ability to solve cross-strait issues, while 22.3% picked Hou.
Candidate’s perceived personal likeability did not translate into public support for their presidential bids. Lai and Ko were rated similarly in favorability by respondents, 32.3% and 31.1%, respectively, within the poll’s margin of error. That compared to the approximate 9% gap between those who picked Lai as their presidential favorite compared to Ko.
The TPOF poll surveyed 1,088 Taiwanese people of voting age by landline and cell phone.
Taiwan’s presidential election is set for January 2024.
