TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Chair of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF), You Ying-lung (游盈隆) shared a warning for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on Thursday (July 13) based on recent polling data.

You warned that support for the DPP ahead of the 2024 presidential election is beginning to wane. Based on TPOF surveys conducted throughout the month of June, the DPP has lost the support of many young and middle-aged voters, said You.

Referencing as yet unpublished polling data, You said that in the age 20 to 34 demographic, Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is vastly outperforming both the DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) by a margin of over 20%.

In the age 35 to 44 demographic, support for the TPP and DPP is roughly tied with approximately 25% each, while the KMT lags behind both by about 8 points, with around 17% of public support. Among those aged 45 to 54, the TPP is again leading competitors by about 5%.

According to You, the DPP’s main advantage is among older voters aged 55 and above, which accounts for about 40% of Taiwan’s total electorate. In that demographic, the DPP has a 5% lead over the KMT, and more than a 20% lead over the TPP.

Currently, presidential candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) maintains a lead in aggregate polling over competitors in the race, including the Taiwan People Party’s (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je and the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜). However, You warned that if the DPP does not work to advance its lead, it risks substantial losses in next year’s presidential and legislative elections.

The TPOF polling data shows the DPP does not enjoy widespread support among younger adults. More worrisome for the DPP, many former supporters in the age 35 to 44 demographic have been lost, and their support has been absorbed by the recently established TPP, according to You.

You speculated that if the trend continues and the DPP begins to lose support from those aged over 55, then the party may be in real trouble next January. You described the current model of electoral support for the DPP as “top-heavy and light-footed, with a shallow foundation.”

He noted that in 2016 and 2020, the DPP won the presidency with 56.1% and 57.1% of voter support in a race between only two major parties. With the added challenge of a third party boasting significant public support and the DPP suffering from declining support among younger voters, they face a much more challenging election in 2024.

You said the DPP appears to have strayed from its founding ideals and lost the aura of moral governance. He said the DPP is starting to be indistinguishable from other parties, and that rumors of corruption have damaged the party’s reputation.