TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) wants to revive the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) and the sound of jaws hitting the floor was heard all across Taiwan.
The CSSTA was the first of two planned treaties to be signed under the still-existent Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The second was an agreement on goods that was never negotiated, which Ko also wants to revive.
The CSSTA was signed in Shanghai, 2013, after negotiations between the then-President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration’s appointed Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) team and their counterparts in the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) in China.
The negotiations were opaque and raised considerable concerns, so the legislature chose to go through the agreement clause by clause before ratifying it. In March of 2014, the Kuomintang (KMT) determined it would go to a vote as the period allotted for the review process had expired, which was a legally debatable argument.
The floor vote never happened as hundreds of activists occupied the legislature. Soon they were joined by tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands of people. Among the protesters was a surgeon attracting considerable buzz about a potential run for Taipei mayor named … Ko Wen-je.
Sunflowers to the rescue
That situation continued for over three weeks and came to be called the Sunflower Movement. It was a massive jolt to the nation, though it was criminally under-covered by the international media at the time.
If not for a dedicated team of media activists like Sean Su (蘇襄) working from within the occupied legislature and scoring some major coups with a then China-obsessed international media, it might have gone almost entirely unnoticed by the world.
Though it only caused a relatively small jump in the percentage of people identifying as Taiwanese, among those that did, it caused a deepening of Taiwanese consciousness, which turbocharged what was already an emerging movement. Traditional Taiwanese customs, history, foods and local languages began to be more treasured and appreciated. People were prouder of being Taiwanese.
That movement likely played a part in why Ko chose to consciously name his party the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), copying the name of the party that emerged from the Taiwan consciousness movement of the 1920s. Ko is fond of dropping references to Taiwan's history.
Concurrently with this societal change, Taiwan became more aware of intensifying Chinese attempts to infiltrate Taiwanese society and politics, and undermine Taiwan economically. This was especially true after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) brutally suppressed Hong Kong,
Why the about-face?
It is in this context, Ko’s decision to do an about-face, support the CSSTA and negotiate a goods agreement, is stupifying. He is calling for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to pass a cross-strait trade oversight mechanism bill, which is the precursor to the CSSTA to come into effect.
He is right on one thing, the DPP at one point did say they were going to pass that trade oversight mechanism bill, but backed away. It was too politically controversial.
This move raises so many questions it makes one dizzy. Why has he done a 180-degree turn on this issue?
Was it a cynical ploy on his part in 2014 to drum up support among younger voters, even though he has nevertheless supported the CSSTA all along? Or has he simply changed his mind on the issue?
Why does he want to revive this issue now? It was not popular in 2014 and is certain to be even less popular now. What does he think he can get politically from this? Is Ko not aware his support base is almost entirely under the age of 45, whose Taiwanese identity is far stronger and whose distrust of, and knowledge of the threat of, the CCP is higher?
What is puzzling is that, of all three main presidential candidates, Ko has been the most eloquent and forceful on the need to boost national defense to counter the threat the CCP poses. He is clear-eyed on that, which begs the question, why is he seemingly so unaware of the threat that they pose through economic warfare and through the United Front Work Department’s (UWFD) efforts to undermine Taiwanese society and democracy?
Terrifying CSSTA
The CSSTA as originally negotiated was nothing short of terrifying.
Keep in mind that there is little distinction between private companies and the CCP as they put party cadres in all but the smallest companies, and any orders given by the party must be followed. Additionally, Chinese companies often act as fronts for espionage, UFWD influence operations and by law must hand over any data demanded by the CCP for any reason and at any time.
The CSSTA would open 64 sectors of the economy to China, along with the people that would come with them. In the introduction to the CSSTA, the list of industries ranges from advertising to sales and marketing, telecommunications to operation of sports and theater facilities, and many more.
This would throw open huge sections of Taiwan's critical business and infrastructure open to Chinese manipulation and control, including the financial system and publishing. Most of those sectors have obvious espionage potential.
Ko’s four points
Ko's campaign office has issued a statement summarizing and to some extent clarifying Ko’s stance, boiled down to four points, supposedly ...
I could not find that press statement anywhere on the TPP’s website or its Facebook page, and I am not on their mailing list. However, CNA did summarize and quote from it, and they are usually a reliable source.
The first point is that the national politics portion of the upcoming policy white paper is not out yet.
The next point is that there is a lot of trade with China. Taiwan has a trade surplus of over US$100 billion (NT$3.1 trillion) with China and accounts for nearly 40% of Taiwan’s total trade. Therefore, legal systems and institutions need to be in place, and trade normalized.
The legal and institutional points could be good or bad, depending on the details. Trade normalization simply is not possible with a country that engages in economic coercion, unfair trade practices and has a political agenda hostile to Taiwan’s economic and political stability.
Next, he calls on the DPP to pass the trade oversight mechanism bill so “the entire population can enjoy the economic benefits, otherwise trade will be dominated and controlled by comprador conglomerates” and also to ensure that Taiwan remains competitive in this important market. Finally, if the president thinks this is a “sugarcoated poison pill” then she should repeal ECFA and all previous agreements, including the early harvest list of agricultural exports allowed into China.
The latest installment (Chinese language PDF) of the detailed reports by the TPP’s think tank, which provides the research upon which the white paper is to be based, includes a section on trade with China. The CSSTA was only mentioned three times.
In each case, it was in the comments sections where individual authors explained their conclusions and thinking. One author slammed the KMT’s handling of the issue, though still supports the idea.
It seems that overall they are very concerned about Taiwan’s ability to enter into free trade agreements with other countries and trade pacts like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The thinking goes that if trade agreements are signed with China, it increases the likelihood of the CCP not objecting or blocking Taiwan.
There is some evidence for that, but not a lot. It is true that in 2015, when Ma was in power, a free trade agreement with New Zealand went through, but soon after Australia balked — presumably under pressure from the CCP.
Appealing to older pan-blues
It appears that Ko is trying to make an economic pitch to the public along the lines of Ma’s 2008 campaign and followed faithfully by every campaign since. We will all get rich off of trade with China and the economy will boom.
It is interesting he specifically targeted the “comprador conglomerates,” as a significant criticism of the agreements the Ma administration signed is that they really only benefited big business interests, especially those with ties to the KMT. Does this mean Ko intends to renegotiate the CSSTA with smaller businesses and the public’s interests in mind?
Very likely he is trying to reach older pan-blues. His support among older voters is extremely low, and this may play with them, especially those who grew up in the 1970s and 1980s and remember the boom economy.
Previously, we explored how that generation thinks, and why they were such big supporters of the KMT candidate in the last presidential election, Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜). The fabled “Han Army” has not warmed to KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜), maybe that is who Ko is after.
The thing that Ko is seriously overlooking is that the CCP will only agree to grant concessions under one of two conditions. Either in exchange for concessions on sovereignty, or in exchange for leverage that will allow them to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty.
The CCP never negotiates in good faith, and never will.
