TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Super Typhoon Mawar (瑪娃) is estimated to be the strongest tropical cyclone since 2021 and is predicted to bring rain to northern and eastern Taiwan on Sunday (May 28).
Precipitation will likely increase from Monday through Thursday (May 29 - June 1), but the intensity of the rain will depend on the location of the typhoon, which is still uncertain.
As of 8 a.m. on Thursday (May 25), Super Typhoon Mawar was about 2,000 kilometers east-southeast of Taiwan's southernmost point of Eluanbi, moving west-northwest at a speed of 29 kph. It has a 280 km radius and was packing maximum sustained winds of 208 kph and gusts of up to 262 kph, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) reported.
(CWB image)
The CWB predicted that as the super typhoon approaches on Sunday, localized short-term showers are likely along the north coast of Keelung, eastern Taiwan, and the Hengchun Peninsula. Later in the day on Sunday, the higher the probability of rain, while other areas will mainly see sunny or partly cloudy skies with brief thunderstorms in mountainous areas in the afternoon.
Meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮) in his daily report said on Friday morning (May 26), the super typhoon had a clear eye and the eye wall structure was solid. He said the U.S. National Weather Service estimates that Mawar is setting the record for the strongest tropical cyclone this year. Meanwhile, the Weather Channel reported that Super Typhoon Mawar is the strongest tropical cyclone since Super Typhoon Chanthu in September 2021.
Satellite view of Mawar, individual trajectories for Mawar. (RAMMB image, ECMWF image)
The latest forecast by the CWB shows that Mawar's intensity will peak on Friday and Saturday (May 27). Wu said the latest model by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the average ensemble path (thick black line) of Mawar will approach the Bashi Channel in about four days, and gradually move in a north-northeasterly direction.
The 50 individual trajectories for Mawar (thin lines) are scattered on the east and west sides of the thick black line.
The closer the path is to Taiwan, the greater the threat, but this is where there is a certain degree of uncertainty due to the limits of technology, and it needs to be closely monitored, Wu said.
Probability Mawar will pass within 120 km in next 240 hours. (ECMWF image)
The latest ECMWF model shows that from Friday to Sunday (May 28), Taiwan will be affected by a high-pressure system, temperatures will rise gradually day by day, and the daytime will be as warm as summer. Friday, skies will be sunny or party cloudy across the country, and there is a chance of brief showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon in mountainous areas and some parts of Hualien and Taitung counties.
On Saturday and Sunday, Wu predicted that the weather will be sunny and stable in much of the country, but there is still a chance of local short-term showers in the afternoon in mountainous areas. From Monday to Thursday, the ECMWF model shows that Mawar will likely reach the Bashi Channel and start to shift northward.
This will likely bring localized showers to parts of Greater Taipei that are windward to the cyclone and the eastern half of the country. Meanwhile, weather in western Taiwan, the leeward side of the storm will be stable with high temperatures.
(JTWC map)
Wu said large waves churned up by Mawar will increase in coastal areas of northern and eastern Taiwan, as well as the Bashi Channel. Therefore, he advised people engaging in seaside activities to exercise caution.
The CWB warned that waves could reach a height of four to six meters or even higher in coastal areas of northern and eastern Taiwan, as well as the Bashi Channel.
(JMA image)
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Friday that "Betty" (its designation for Mawar) will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening or early Saturday morning. It predicts the typhoon will stay inside the PAR for three to five days.
(CWB image)
(NOAA image)
(NOAA GIF)
(NOAA GIF)
