TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Former Trump administration National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien said that China's timeframe to launch an invasion of Taiwan has shortened to as soon as next year.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Thursday (May 4) O'Brien warned in an online interview this week that China's armed invasion of Taiwan is likely to happen within one to two years. He urged the U.S. and Japan to respond resolutely, assist with Taiwan's defense, and give Taiwan diplomatic support to deter China's actions.
In 2021, the then commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, warned at a U.S. Senate hearing that he was worried that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) attack on Taiwan may occur within the next six years or by 2027, but O'Brien told the newspaper, “I believe that window has gotten smaller, I think it’s down to a year or two.”
O'Brien also emphasized that if Japan, the U.S., and their allied countries do not “provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs to defend itself, and give it the diplomatic muscle that Taiwan needs to prevent the Chinese from believing that they can invade Taiwan without consequence, we could be in a very dangerous situation in Taiwan.”
In March, O'Brien, as the chairman of the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Working Group of the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), led a group of American think tank scholars to visit Taiwan and received the Order of Brilliant Star with Special Grand Cordon from President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). At that time, O'Brien said the U.S. would not want to see Taiwan invaded by an authoritarian regime, and believed the U.S. would stand united with Taiwan.
According to the report, O'Brien is expected to visit Japan on May 16 and will deliver a speech at the Yomiuri International Economic Society (YIES) and attend an international conference in Tokyo.