TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has since its founding struggled to find a coherent identity distinct from the other parties, especially on China-related issues.
The party took stands on specific policies, and pitched itself as practical, pragmatic, science-based but it still came across as not yet a fully-formed, distinct party.
That is finally starting to change, and while not yet complete, it might be by next January’s elections. By his own admission, party chair Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) noted that he was distracted by being the Taipei mayor and didn’t really do a good job running the TPP.
Since leaving office on Dec. 25, he has devoted himself full-time to being the party chair and presumed presidential candidate. He rejected a return to the medical world.
A Taiwan Origin Brain Trust think tank for the party was established in January to work on a white paper outlining what the party stands for. While the white paper isn’t out yet, some of the more recent ideas coming from Ko appear to be more well-thought-out and consistent.
He has taken some clear stands on China, made some interesting proposals on the roles of the president, premier and accountability, and is articulating a vision of a party that — if put in power — would recruit officials from across the political spectrum and unite both pan-blues and pan-greens.
He has also been reiterating the same points in interviews, suggesting he’s thoroughly thought through the subjects. He has even largely avoided making the off-the-cuff gaffes he’s so famous for.
Clearly, devoting himself full-time to this was a good move for Ko and the TPP, and if they can succeed in crafting a truly distinctive voice, they could be more formidable than people expect.
Good news, bad news
That would be bad news for both the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT). I have been pouring over polling data and estimate that around one-quarter to one-third of Ko and the TPP’s supporters are from light green or green-leaning independents, with the rest coming from their equivalents on the pan-blue side — so bad for the DPP but worse for the KMT.
However, young voters are increasingly moving towards the TPP, and far more of those are coming from the pan-green camp. If that trend continues or accelerates, then that would be very bad news for the DPP.
The party is also professionalizing, recently posting 30 job offerings on local online job banks for the types of professional jobs a modern political machine needs. Some of the jobs offered salaries as high as NT$70,000 (US$2,289) a month, and English and Japanese speakers were sought.
After delivering a lecture at Tunghai University recently, I asked why the TPP was doing so well with young voters, especially the 20-29 demographic. One interesting thing I was told is that the TPP’s messaging online is quite effective.
Many of the jobs being offered were on the communications side. They may be being hired to try and reach voters over the age of 40, whose support for Ko is very low.
The party has also picked up some momentum on getting key people to join the party. Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊), who ran as an independent in the last Taipei mayoral race in November, has joined the party.
While she lost the race, she did respectably well and her supporters stuck with her to the end. By running in the capital, she got national attention and name recognition, which she now brings to the TPP.
Heavyweight figures
Kinmen County Commissioner Chen Fu-hai (陳福海), who ran as an independent, has also joined the party. That brings the number of local administrations run by the TPP up to two, along with Ann Kao (高虹安) in Hsinchu City.
The more independents that join the party, the more likely others will follow suit. They bring valuable knowledge, connections and name recognition with them.
Not everything is looking good, though. In January, a large number of central committee members and central evaluation committee members left in protest. They were reportedly upset with high levels of responsibility and with Ko being too domineering, a frequently heard complaint.
While Kao has been popular in Hsinchu since she was elected, she still faces legal troubles that could blow back on the party. Similar allegations have been levelled at her former TPP colleagues in the legislature, which if true could compound the party’s problems.
In polling on presidential matchups between Ko and the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜), the DPP’s Lai Ching-te (賴清德), Ko’s support has consistently been around the 18-22% mark for the past few months, putting him third. As things stand now, he is a long shot to win, though there is a long time until the election.
He knows this. As he put it: “Honestly, it goes without saying that in a normal election we can’t win, but the more and more chaotic it gets the better (for us).”
He has three incentives to run regardless. The first is the “hen” effect whereby the person at the top of the ticket attracts attention to downstream “chicks” running for legislature and the press attention a presidential candidate gets is invaluable.
The more votes he can drum up for his party, the more government subsidies the party will get. It’s a system that heavily favours big parties, but he has got a shot at boosting the party’s strength to well above the other third parties.
Hatching support
There is also a respectable chance he could come in second. On the KMT side, the two potential candidates have some potential flaws, and Ko is not polling too far behind either.
Hou will either continue not taking stands on any important issues, which would hurt him, or he is going to have to take a stand that risks turning off voters. Either way, there is a distinct possibility he loses a few percentage points off his support, putting him in the same support range as Ko.
Of course, Hou is a seasoned politician and his poll numbers could rise instead. The other potential KMT candidate, Terry Gou (郭台銘) is thin-skinned, prone to gaffes, has a deep blue ideology well outside of the mainstream and has been polling about the same as Ko in many polls.
In the legislative races, the TPP will struggle to win district seats. The party lacks the experienced ground game the two big parties bring to the table, the resources to market their way out of that problem, or even candidates with any name recognition.
It’s possible they could win a small handful, or get an independent or two to join them, but this is not where they are likely to shine. They are really hoping to pick up party list seats, where voters vote by party and seats are allocated proportionally, unlike in districts.
The party list makes up 35 of the 113 seats total, and in 2020 the TPP picked up five of those. This time around, Ko is hoping for a minimum of eight seats, which is fairly realistic.
If the election was held today, I would expect the TPP to get seven to 10 party list seats. If they also managed to get one or two district seats, it’s quite possible the TPP could get over 10 seats, and potentially could hold the balance of power between the two bigger parties.
If Ko and the TPP’s professionalization keep accelerating, and their proposals are both different but also acceptable enough to give the party a clear identity and platform, while Ko continues to keep up his recent message discipline, the TPP could do fairly well in the upcoming election.
