The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must have breathed a huge sigh of relief when Mike Pompeo announced his decision not to run for U.S. president recently.
If Pompeo had run and won, it could have been the CCP’s worst nightmare. Not only has Pompeo previously been sanctioned by the Chinese government, he is also one of the most prominent advocates for ending the “one China” policy. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement characterizing him as selfish, prejudiced, hateful, and crazy.
Personally, I was looking forward to seeing Pompeo stand on a presidential debate stage and spar with the other candidates over the topic of whether the U.S. should diplomatically recognize Taiwan.
Unlike the other Republicans who’ve announced they are running, Pompeo has taken a very public stance on the issue. After meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on a trip to Taipei last year, Pompeo stated:
“It is my view that the U.S. government should immediately take necessary, and long-overdue, steps to do the right and obvious thing, that is to offer the Republic of China (Taiwan) America’s diplomatic recognition as a free and sovereign country. This is not about Taiwan’s future independence, it is about recognizing an unmistakable, already existent reality."
Multiple polls have shown that a majority of Americans agree with Pompeo. However, prominent academics and think tank analysts have dismissed public opinion as uninformed and have criticized Pompeo's statement as reckless.
China response
More than a dozen members of a “task force on US-China policy” signed a statement urging the U.S. government to “avoid symbolic political gestures that needlessly aggravate Beijing,” arguing that “calling for formal recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign state as has former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo … (would) greatly increase, rather than decrease, the likelihood of conflict across the Taiwan Strait.”
Chang-tai Hsieh (謝長泰), an economics professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business, wrote:
“A critical part of deterrence is to avoid actions that would give China an excuse to attack … formal diplomatic recognition by the U.S. would be viewed as a step on the path to formal independence. That could force China’s hand, because no Chinese leader could survive if he did nothing in response to such a step.
Pompeo's insistence on U.S. recognition of Taiwan is intriguing given that he is a former CIA director and U.S. secretary of state. He has had access to classified national security information that his detractors have likely never seen.
Does he know something that they don’t? Does he just hold a different set of values? Or is he truly just “crazy,” as the CCP would have us believe? Whatever the answer, we will not be learning it on a presidential debate stage.
However, there is still a chance we may get to see Pompeo defend his views in a vice presidential debate. Former U.S. President Donald Trump currently has a hefty lead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. If his campaign does not get derailed by legal troubles, he will likely be the nominee in 2024.
Political pundits have long speculated that Pompeo could be on Trump’s list of potential VPs. Perhaps one of the unstated reasons why Pompeo will not be entering the presidential race is to avoid a verbal slugfest with his former boss, which would damage his value as a potential running mate. It may also explain why Pompeo has been reluctant to criticize Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection.
For the sake of argument, let us assume that Trump stays on top of the polls, becomes the Republican nominee, and then chooses Pompeo as his VP. What would be the implications for U.S.-Taiwan relations?
In late 2016, Trump made history when he became the first U.S. president-elect to accept a phonecall from Taiwan's president since the U.S. cut formal ties with Taiwan in 1979.
Good deal
In early 2021, as Trump was leaving office, his administration made history again when then-Secretary of State Pompeo lifted all self-imposed restrictions on contacts between U.S. and Taiwan officials.
With Pompeo as Trump's VP, news reporters and debate moderators would certainly be eager to ask Trump whether he plans to recognize Taiwan if he is elected president. Trump would have a number of good reasons to say yes. For example:
- He and Pompeo would then have a consistent message and would not need to explain their differences in opinion.
- A majority of Americans would support Trump's decision.
- Trump would end a hypocritical U.S. policy of pressuring small countries to maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan while America is unwilling to do so itself.
- Trump would end decades of disrespectful and discriminatory treatment towards Taiwan’s elected leaders. By righting a wrong, he would be viewed as taking the moral high ground.
- By unapologetically stating that Taiwan is a free, sovereign, independent country, Trump would be speaking the truth.
- By refusing to censor his speech in response to Chinese intimidation, Trump would look tough in comparison to any rival presidential candidate who was unwilling to do the same.
- By making history, Trump would receive widespread media coverage, which could benefit his campaign before the election.
- China would throw a giant temper-tantrum, which would generate even more media coverage that could potentially benefit Trump.
Trump would, of course, be criticized as reckless, just as Pompeo was. However, such criticisms have not deterred Trump in the past.
Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear agreement because he thought Obama made a bad deal. Similarly, Trump could pull the U.S. out of the “one China” agreement if he thinks Jimmy Carter made a bad deal.
Would Trump recognize Taiwan if Pompeo were his VP? Only Trump can answer that question, but I, for one, hope that he would. I also think that Biden should consider doing it before Trump has a chance and while Taiwan still has a president who is internationally well-known and respected.