TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The vehicle that China will reportedly launch over a no-fly zone imposed north of Taiwan has been identified as a Long March 4B and the length of time that the area will be restricted has been extended to six hours due to concerns over falling debris.

China originally set up a no-fly zone in the northern sector of Taiwan's air defense identification zone for three days (April 16-18), but after protests from the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, it was changed to 27 minutes, which is expected to affect about 33 flights. However, China's Fujian Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning on Thursday (April 13) saying that from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on April 16, "there may be falling rocket wreckage."

The inconsistency of the time when air and sea traffic is prohibited in the zone about 85 nautical miles (157 km) north of Taiwan has caused concern because 18 international routes and 160 flights pass through the area per day.The government's Weixin account "International Rocket Launches" (國際火箭發射) on Thursday (April 13) announced China is going to launch "a Fengyun-3G Weather Satellite" from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center with a Long March 4B rocket.

Vietnamese military analyst Duan Dang on Wednesday (April 12) correctly predicted that the no-fly zone had been set up for a launch from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. He was also one of the first to report on a navigation warning from China's Fujian Maritime Safety Administration issued on Thursday (April 13) saying that from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on April 16, "there may be falling rocket wreckage" within a zone designated by four main points in the East China Sea.

Taiwanese national security officials were cited by CNA as saying that the closure of the area is tied to China's launch of a weather satellite and is related to the recent three-day "Joint Sword" exercise. Their understanding is that the no-fly zone has been set up to guard against falling debris from the rocket.

The Civil Aeronautics Administration and the Maritime and Port Bureau issued air and sea warnings on Thursday at 9 p.m. in advance of the closure of the area, warning air and sea transport operators to avoid the area when China conducts aerospace activities on Sunday. The two bureaus pledged to monitor the surrounding sea and airspace 24 hours a day to ensure navigation safety.

(Maritime and Port Bureau image)

Although I haven't seen the potential NOTAM from Taipei ACC, my conjecture is that the impending no-fly zone north of Taiwan could be linked to a launch from the Jiuquan Space Launch Center on April 16. pic.twitter.com/eCRPnBz4iG

— Duan Dang (@duandang) April 12, 2023