TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Experts assert that China's Shandong aircraft carrier exercises are testing whether the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) can impose a blockade on Taiwan without the use of missiles, seriously threatening Taiwan's ability to protect its east coast.

Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University Institute of Strategic Studies, told CNA that when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, the PLA mainly fired ballistic missiles, but some fell into Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), "stirring up a storm [of controversy]." Lin said that the purpose of this year's exercises is to verify whether China's navy and air force can be deployed from multiple points into the waters to the west, south, and east of Taiwan simultaneously, thus achieving the objective of blockading Taiwan without firing missiles.

Lin said the introduction of the Shandong means the so-called "safe zone" in eastern Taiwan will disappear and even become a front line.

In addition, Lin said the U.S. military must pass through Taiwan's east coast waters to support Taiwan. During the exercises, Lin said the Shandong jet fighters conducted take-off and landing operations to verify whether they can implement Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) against the U.S. military.

According to Lin, the development of a submarine underwater force will be key to whether Taiwan can cooperate with U.S. military forces in defending against PLAN vessels off its east coast.

In addition, Chieh Chung (揭仲), an associate research fellow with the National Policy Foundation in Taipei, said the Shandong's estimated capacity is 24 to 32 aircraft. Chieh said the J-15 fighters used in the recent drills comprise a tactical flying formation that "poses a substantial threat to Taiwan."

Chieh pointed out that if the Shandong is officially ready for combat, China will have two aircraft carrier battle groups ready for dispatch, with at least one able to patrol the Western Pacific. He warned this could hamper Taiwan's ability to protect its east coast naval facilities and the Chiashan Air Force Base.

Since the Chinese aircraft carrier battle group would be located outside the range of shore-mounted anti-ship missiles, Chieh said Taiwan's countermeasures are limited. He said that it could only be dealt with by fighter jets or submarines, which would be difficult given Taiwan's limited air and naval assets.

Following last week's meeting between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command on Saturday (April 8) announced that it would conduct three days of military exercises around Taiwan dubbed "Joint Sword." According to the Ministry of National Defense (MND), 200 People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) military aircraft have been detected around Taiwan from Saturday to Monday (April 10).