TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In the 1990s, a blueprint for Taiwanese diplomacy prioritized a “three pillars” approach: formal diplomatic relationships first, followed by Taiwan’s unofficial relationships, and lastly, participation in international organizations. However, according to National Chengchi University Department of Diplomacy Chair Professor Yeh-chung Lu (盧業中), the contemporary global environment is challenging this approach.
Speaking to Taiwan News on Honduras’ recent decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China on Tuesday (March 28), Lu said the country’s local conditions conflict with the values of freedom, human rights, and democracy that Taiwan employs when seeking to improve its unofficial relationships with developed democracies like the U.S., Japan, and EU countries. He said this is also an issue for some of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies, meaning challenges for Taiwan when working to improve relationships with its informal allies.
“In other words, if we continue to put resources on the ‘second pillar,’ then our traditional diplomatic allies may feel betrayed,” he said. If Taiwan continues to commit support to formal diplomatic allies that are not democratized or committed to human rights, then how can Taiwan convince its informal diplomatic allies, "especially advanced stable democracies, that we are going to contribute to the international community?” Lu asked.
Is U.S. power in Central America waning?
Despite commentators suggesting that U.S. weakness in the region was the reason for the switch, Lu believes the Honduran President Xiomara Castro, who has been in office since January 2022, played a central role. “I believe when president Castro was inaugurated she would have cut off the ties immediately, so I think the U.S. actually helped Taiwan to keep them longer, for at least a few months.”
He said U.S. support ultimately failed to protect the Honduras-Taiwan relationship because of reported financial arrangements President Castro made for herself and her family with the Chinese government. “China, to my knowledge, has been in touch with Honduras’ political elites for a very long time, so I think President Castro is the key figure in the decision-making in Honduras on this issue,” he said.
Tsai’s upcoming Central American trip
Despite the switch outwardly appearing as something of a humiliation to the Taiwanese government, Lu said that Taiwan’s career diplomats deserve to be recognized for the way they handled the situation. He said he believes Taiwan’s diplomats in Honduras had known for some time about the possibility of a diplomatic switch, and that they used this knowledge to help the Presidential Office plan President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) upcoming Central American Trip beginning March 21.
“I think this kind of information has been transmitted to the president's office in Taiwan,” Lu said, allowing the Office to avoid a face-to-face meeting between Tsai and Castro. “If both Presidents met and Taiwan made some commitment, but Honduras said they would cut off the ties by the end of the year anyway, that would be a huge setback to Taiwan.”
Quality versus quantity
President Tsai said on Sunday (March 26) that Taiwan refused to "engage in a meaningless contest of dollar diplomacy with China," after Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) revealed that growing Honduran aid requests had resulted in the breaking of ties between the two countries, adding that Taiwan did not provide direct “cash assistance." Paraguay, whose election in April threatens yet another diplomatic break for Taiwan reportedly also asked for massive aid increases to maintain ties with Taiwan, though Paraguayan officials have since denied this.
According to Lu, these revelations are cause for considering what kinds of allies Taiwan wants to have, referencing the outgoing President of the Federated States of Micronesia’s (FSM) open letter to the country’s parliament calling for the switch of diplomatic relations to Taiwan from China. President Tsai and Minster Wu’s comments may mean “people will think that Taiwan is now focusing on real friends instead of the total number of allies, so people will consider if Micronesia really is one of them,” Lu said.
Lu had heard talks about a possible diplomatic switch going back about two years, saying, "some people on the Taiwan side already spoke about this but in terms of the size of the country, it’s very small, only the population of one district in New Taipei." Despite its small size, if FSM did switch diplomatic recognition to Taiwan, it would still be a victory, Lu reasoned.
The FSM President’s letter claimed that NT$1.5 billion (US$50 million), an additional US$15 million annually in healthcare, scholarships, and training programs “can, and will” be received by the FSM “if and when” the country switches diplomatic relations from China to Taiwan. Minister Wu confirmed to the legislature on March 10 that he had "indeed contacted and exchanged views" with the FSM President, but did not comment on alleged promises of aid.