TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan and the United States should prepare for an armed conflict with China, even though the likelihood of war is relatively small, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chairman Richard Bush said on Wednesday (March 22).

Chinese leaders understand that if a war breaks out in the near future, the risk of escalation into a total war with intervention by the U.S. is low, Bush said. However, the likelihood of an armed incident can not be entirely excluded, Bush added.

Taiwan and the U.S. need to be prepared for the possibility of military confrontation, with the common aim of reducing the risk of war in the first place, per CNA. Methods to do that include persuading China that Taiwan is not a red line and building an effective deterrent so Beijing would decide not to attack, Bush said.

Bush estimated that in the case of a war, the U.S. would need one month to arrive on the scene, while Taiwan at present does not have enough troops to defend its coast. In this light, he approved of President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) decision to extend compulsory military service to one year, while emphasizing the importance of a well-trained reservist force.

The former AIT chairman called on Taiwan’s political parties to work out a joint approach which could include a demand for China to stay neutral during Taiwan elections, a consensus about Taiwanese economic dependence on China, and a rejection of Beijing’s “One Country, Two Systems” formula as a topic for cross-strait talks.