TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — According a new study, the performance of Taiwan’s ruling political party explains why the number of people identifying as ‘Taiwanese' is declining.

Data from National Chengchi University’s (NCCU) Election Study Center shows that in 1992, only about 17% of Taiwan’s people identified as “Taiwanese," the majority of people (46%) identified as both “Chinese and Taiwanese," and about 25% identified solely as “Chinese."

In 2020, over 64% of people identified solely as “Taiwanese," while about 30% identified as Taiwanese and Chinese, and only 3.6% as solely Chinese. This radical shift in Taiwan’s sense of self has typically been attributed to Taiwan’s democratization and growth of national pride, military threats from China solidifying Taiwanese national unity, and generational change, meaning fewer Taiwanese have familial or historical links to China.

Despite this turnaround between 2014-2018 and 2020-2022, there was a reduction in the number of people identifying as “Taiwanese” and an increase in those identifying as “Chinese and Taiwanese.” Co-author and Assistant Professor Soochow University’s Department of Political Science Fang-Yu Chen (陳方隅) and his co-authors' recent study is focused on finding out why.

“Taiwanese identity is always the most salient issue in Taiwan’s party politics," according to Chen. Major political parties’ stance on cross-strait issues, such as Taiwan’s relationship with China, is the only area where they can show a meaningful difference in policy.

(National Chengchi University Election Center image.)

The study describes this as the “single political cleavage” driving voters’ preferences for Taiwan’s two major parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT). “Within the DPP there is a spectrum, and on social issues, it is highly overlapping with the KMT,” Chen said.

The study proposes that the DPP and KMT’s differing positions on cross-strait issues influence whether Taiwan’s people identify as “Taiwanese” or “Chinese and Taiwanese." When the DPP performs well, the study links this to an increase in the number of those identifying solely as Taiwanese, because the party’s position on cross-strait relations is de facto independence.

Conversely, when the KMT does well, there is an expected increase in those identifying as both Chinese and Taiwanese because the party aligns more closely with the “Republic of China in Taiwan." The results are reversed when the parties’ performance is reversed.

In 2016 the DPP gained control of the legislature and presidency for the first time in Taiwan, an event the study says framed the Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) presidency as the “realization of Taiwanese identity for voters.” It said that when Tsai’s government failed to perform, voters realized identifying as Taiwanese wasn’t lucrative, and became less likely to proclaim that identity.

“The DPP did not perform well after fully controlling the government, and since Taiwanese identity is an issue owned by DPP, Taiwanese respondents switched from Taiwan identity to others as a hedging strategy,” the study said.

Stamps commemorate Taiwan's first directly elected president, Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), elected in 1998. (CNA Photo)

Though Taiwan’s former DPP President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) time in office (2000-2008) was marked by controversy, policy failures, and corruption, those identifying as Taiwanese did not decline during this time. The study pointed to the divided government as one reason which made it more difficult for voters to equate Chen’s performance with national identity.

In addition, the percentage of those identifying as “Taiwanese” in the early 2000s was low but still growing across party lines. Post 2016, clear party-political alignments had emerged between those identifying as “Taiwanese," and those identifying as “Chinese and Taiwanese," with the DPP and the KMT respectively.

Associate Teaching Professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia Dr. Sydney Yueh said that it is possible people identify in different ways depending on context. “Identity is usually announced or revealed when there is an external stimulant, such as a survey,” she said.

“…NCCU’s election center conducts the survey annually, the answer about one’s identity is a political gesture or announcement,” Yueh said, adding that Chen’s paper is “definitely aligned with this assumption. They want to know people’s political identities, rather than other identities.

Yueh gave the example of a DPP supporter with a clear Taiwanese identity and a parallel appreciation for Chinese literature. Chen agreed, saying that Taiwanese people might view identity differently for different purposes, and “some just take Taiwanese identity as an instrumental instead of a fundamental value.”

President Tsai Ing-wen casts her ballot in a local election in 2022. (AP photo)

According to NCCU’s data, 2020- 2022 shows a decline in the number of Taiwan’s people identifying as “Taiwanese.” Chen said that if the decline is statistically significant, they will replicate the study to see if the theory still applies.

“My guess is that it does, as in this period the dissatisfaction on government responses to Covid-19 sharply increases,” Chen said.