TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — When asked how he would describe himself, Hong Kong author, political commentator, and Youtuber Chip Tsao (陶傑) had a comparison on the tip of his tongue.

“Tucker … Yes, Tucker Carlson, which is a bit provocative, but somehow speaks the truth,” he said, along with another comparison: Piers Morgan.

There are a couple of likely characterizations that may come into readers’ minds when they hear these names, such as racism, misogyny, and popularism. And they could be forgiven for thinking that, as he has been accused of all these things.

Perhaps his most prominent controversy came in 2009 when he wrote an article about the Sino-Philippine dispute over islands in the South China Sea, advising Filipinos, "As a nation of servants, you don't flex your muscles at your master, from whom you earn most of your bread and butter."

He has also been accused of mocking the #metoo movement, of looking down on the Chinese, and glorifying British culture. This is possibly due to his education at the University of Warwick and the London School of Economics, and his great admiration for Winston Churchill.

Despite all that, it is hard to agree with Tsao’s self-comparison with Tucker Carlson. Yes, the controversy surrounding his comments about Filipinos was certainly warranted, and there is no doubt that calling Filipinos slaves and Chinese masters veers past the realm of satire and into the realm of racial prejudice, even bigotry.

Tsao's 2009 article, however, does not represent a repeated pattern of racist output, a la Carlson, who promotes extreme-right-wing conspiracy theories and white supremacist narratives nearly daily on his Fox News TV slot. As Tsao described his views on a range of prescient international issues, even those who may not agree with him would likely recognize that he approaches issues with a genuine desire to stoke meaningful debate.

'Cultural fence-sitter'

“I’m a liberal, but my thoughts and feelings are deeply anchored in the soil of common sense,” he told Taiwan News in an exclusive interview. “I was born in Hong Kong, and brought up as a Hong Kong Chinese. I was educated in an Anglo-Saxon world, I could read English literature, so I am a cultural fence-sitter,” Tsao said. “I don’t mind labeling and name-calling, I am used to it.”

“I try to strike a balance between East and Western cultures and liberalism and conservatism,” Tsao said, and while that may lead to some branding him as a “right-winger,” he doesn’t see himself as one.

He says that through his YouTube channel, he has been taking classical liberal values of the 19th century and translating them into his own language and culture, providing a lone voice of reason in an age of self-censorship.

The Beijing-backed National Security law passed in Hong Kong in 2020 has caused many publishers, social commentators, journalists, and outspoken government critics to leave Hong Kong, himself included. He is currently in Taiwan, producing content here.

Tsao does not feel sorry for himself, though, nor for others who have chosen self-exile to avoid political crackdowns. He says that those who fled Hong Kong might benefit from better integrating into the societies they have chosen to leave for, like one of his intellectual inspirations, Winston Churchill.

During the 1930s, Churchill was out of political favor, and spent much of his time attempting to influence U.K. politics from the sidelines, via newspaper and magazine columns. Notably, his repeated warnings against the Nazi threat went unheeded, until his ultimate vindication when the failure of appeasement policies resulted in his return to power, wartime prime ministership, and eventual recognition as one of history’s great statesmen.

Returning hero

“These are the stories that have been inspiring me for years,” Tsao said. “There are more lessons to learn while you are in exile in a foreign country, so that one day when you go back to Hong Kong, you will be a different person.”

“Who knows, one day you may go back to Hong Kong and it will be a democratized place, and then things will change, and then you can be a leader,” he said.

Perhaps this is the future Tsao hopes for himself, making a triumphant return to Hong Kong when the time is right, and there is room for his political ideas. Until then, he does appear to be following in Churchill’s footsteps, voraciously producing media content (the night before our interview he had livestreamed from mid-evening to 3am), and getting his voice out there however he can.

Addressing current concerns, Tsao said that he believes the Chinese balloon that drifted over the U.S. in early February, causing a major diplomatic upset, was likely played up by the U.S., who in his words “turned a passive (act) into an active one.”

Tsao said this is a critical time for China to reengage with the global economy and other international actors as it comes out of three years of pandemic setbacks, recent U.S. semiconductor controls, and economic decline. He said that intentionally invading U.S. airspace is not rational behavior.

“(The incident) is more likely to be a mistake in the Chinese bureaucracy or a technical problem. After all, Chinese manufacturing is not so reliable,” Tsao quipped.

Balloon diplomacy

Tsao said the U.S. has “known for a long time” about Chinese balloons, and that Biden’s decision to shoot it down where he did, allowing it time to reach a place where damage from debris could be avoided, suggests it wasn’t an immediate threat, and that other factors were at play.

The Biden administration’s public release of photos showing the destroyed balloon will help the Democrats in the upcoming 2024 election, according to Tsao, while creating conditions favorable to a McCarthy trip to Taiwan.

Tsao also pointed out that Biden’s repeated commitments to defend Taiwan suggest U.S. strategic ambiguity has moved toward a “state of preparing for war.”

Europe is largely led by Germany and France, according to Tsao, both of which have close trade relations with China. “China knows that if it can control Germany, it can control most of Europe,” he said.

As for Taiwan, Tsao says that European countries are taking advantage of “tourist diplomacy,” referencing the delegations from Germany, France, and other countries that have recently visited Taiwan. The bilateral negotiations for trade and investment agreements that have come out of these trips are simply down to material interests, said Tsao.

“It’s quite hard to imagine that Europe would just abandon the whole Chinese market overnight and embrace Taiwan just because of political and moral beliefs,” he said.

Tsao said that the visits from foreign delegations, including Nancy Pelosi’s in August 2022, will not make the cross-strait situation less dangerous. He said what really puts Taiwan at greater risk is its approach to cross-strait negotiations.

Tsao posed the question, if war were to break out in Taiwan over the next few years, “how could European capital be expected to invest in Taiwan? This world is realistic and profit-oriented.”

Cross-strait relationship

There won’t be a war with China before the end of 2024 as China waits to see the results of the year’s presidential election, Tsao said. If the Kuomintang gains power in 2024, Tsao said “the CCP believes that there is hope for peace talks.”

Regardless, Tsao believes that "Taiwan's own military strength" and "relations with the United States" are the key to Taiwan's future.

KMT Vice Chairman Andrew Hisa’s recent trip to China to meet with CCP officials is not likely to have any impact on cross-strait relations, Tsao said. “Discussions or no discussions, there’s no difference.”

In Tsao’s view, Hsia’s visit only serves as a political signal to the undecided Taiwan voters that, unlike Tsai Ing-wen, the KMT is capable of having discussions with China, thus strengthening the party’s position in the upcoming election.

Regardless, Tsao believes that for Taiwan, it does not matter who is in power. "Even if (relatively pro-China former Taiwan President) Ma Ying-jeou came to power now, it would not be more peaceful than Tsai Ing-wen," he said.

“It doesn’t matter if you don’t mention Taiwan independence, if you only talk about the 1992 Consensus, you only mention one China, and you don’t mention China in different forms. China can still say that you have Taiwanese independence, and if it feels confident, it can still beat you,” Tsao said. “So, what is important, is Taiwan’s strength.”