TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — On Sunday (Jan. 15) the Financial Times ran an article on Lai Ching-te (賴清德) becoming the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chair, and the foreign policy implications of his becoming the likely DPP presidential candidate entitled “Taiwan presidential contender sparks US concerns over China tensions.”
The article included the following:
“There are concerns in Washington about his experience and that of his advisers on international or cross-Strait affairs,” said Ivan Kanapathy, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former National Security Council official in the Trump White House. A US government official said it was “difficult to be reassured when you hear him declare that Taiwan is an independent nation”.
You could almost hear the shudders going down spines throughout the DPP.
Ms Tsai goes to Washington
While campaigning during her first presidential run in 2011, then DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) went to Washington D.C. It did not go well.
At the time, Washington was still starry-eyed about the potential of China, greedy for its massive market, ignorant of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) intentions and motivations, and still convinced that somehow the CCP would lead China to becoming a “responsible actor on the world stage” and move toward democracy. During the Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) presidency, the cross-strait relationship was turbulent, but the U.S. side continuously put the blame on the Chen administration, accusing it of “provoking China” and calling him a troublemaker.
All that potential Mao Zedong-adorned cash apparently warped their ability to see straight. They walked right into Beijing’s trap every time.
A “senior US official” was quoted at the time as saying about Tsai Ing-wen: “She left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue the stability in cross-Strait relations the region has enjoyed in recent years.”
That same U.S. official said that while she understood the need “to avoid gratuitous provocations” of China, it was “far from clear …that she and her advisers fully appreciate the depth of [Chinese] mistrust of her motives and DPP aspirations.”
That statement is staggering. Note the solicitous concern for China, but not for the democratic voters in Taiwan.
It’s also unclear if the second part of that was wildly ignorant or willfully undercutting. Tsai was the head of the Mainland Affairs Council handling affairs with Beijing during the Chen administration, she more than anyone was fully aware of how the CCP thinks.
There were further incidents like this, that clearly gave the impression that Washington wanted Ma Ying-jeou to win a second term, and was meddling in the election. They were happy that he was moving closer to the CCP, and at the time unconcerned that his administration’s actions could have the effect of giving too much leverage and control to Beijing.
The impact on Tsai’s campaign was devastating. Voters in Taiwan were not going to elect a candidate that could not work with the U.S. It was not the only reason she lost, but it was definitely a factor.
American deep green apprehensions
The FT article also stated: “That moves to centre stage a man virtually unknown outside Taiwan and often described as “deep green” — shorthand for more radical pro-independence leanings — foreshadowing an even more turbulent year in cross-Strait relations given China’s unprecedented military threats against Taiwan.”
“Even more turbulent year” is debatable. The CCP is very well aware of where Lai stands on “independence.” It may be an “even more turbulent year,” but the reasons will not be due to Lai, but rather to internal calculations made in Beijing.
Fortunately, the FT piece was written by Kathrin Hille, who knows her stuff and is one of the best foreign journalists to ever cover Taiwan. She knew who to talk to, and what quotes to get to balance out the article, and Rupert Hammond-Chambers nailed it:
“Anxiety about Lai being pro-independence is partly due to a lack of understanding of Taiwan’s domestic political discourse,” said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, a lobby group. “The apprehension many express about him reflects more latent concern about the deep green every time an election comes around. To be fair, Lai has played in that pool, but he is becoming more careful now.”
My previous column is about understanding that domestic political discourse, and was written in preparation for writing this one, so overseas readers could reference the context that Lai is operating in.
“Practical worker for Taiwan’s independence”
The interesting thing is that there is not much proof of Lai being “pro-independence” (台獨, taidu) in the sense they mean, in spite of that being the widespread impression of him. The DPP has many figures who have come right out and said they are, but Lai has pretty consistently stuck to the line Taiwan does not need to declare independence because it already is independent as the Republic of China (ROC).
The one quote everyone points to is his comment about being a “political worker striving for Taiwan’s independence,” which he soon amended to “practical worker” once he realized how the original sounded. He has insisted he meant Taiwan synonymously with ROC independence.
There appears to be only one instance where he came right out and said he was pro-independence. During a grilling in 2015 at the Tainan City Council when he was the mayor he said: “Of course I stand for Taiwan independence” (我當然是主張台灣獨立). I can find no reference to him saying that before or since, and it's unclear if it was anything more than the heat of the moment.
During Lai’s 2019 presidential primary challenge to Tsai, the deep-green, hardcore pro-independence wing of the party rallied to Lai’s side. However, during his run, Lai never said anything that sounded much different than Tsai on the issue.
While we do not know what Lai may have said to them behind closed doors, it is worth noting that the deep greens had plenty of problems with Tsai. They had plenty of other reasons to support Lai, as he was by far the most popular politician in the party, Tsai’s popularity had tanked, and the DPP had just been thrashed a few months earlier in local elections.
Lai-Tsai same-same
To underscore how his views and path forward are the same as Tsai’s on the issue, at his swearing in ceremony he explicitly said he would continue her “four musts” formula with regard to China, and reiterated that Taiwan does not need to declare independence. The “four musts” call on the Chinese government to recognize the existence of the Republic of China, respect the commitment of the nation’s 23 million citizens to freedom and democracy, peacefully address cross-strait differences “on a basis of equality,” and engage in negotiations with the Taiwan government or relevant authorities.
For all intents and purposes, he’s very similar to Tsai on the issue. Both of them frequently refer to the country as Taiwan, but use ROC in specific instances.
It has been said that Lai uses “Taiwan” more than Tsai, but that’s debatable. At her most recent New Year’s address immediately following the ROC flag-raising ceremony, Tsai mentioned Taiwan ten times, but did not mention the ROC even once.
There is however, one difference between the two. Lai has publicly supported Taiwan getting a new constitution, which is one of the CCP’s “red lines” because it implies independence — though there is no indication that Lai is suggesting it would be anything other than a new ROC constitution.
However, considering the technical challenges, it is unlikely that Lai would actually go much further than perhaps attempt to amend the current one.
Be reassured, speculation is irrelevant anyway
And at the end of the day, speculating about whether either Lai or Tsai are “pro-independence” is irrelevant. Almost certainly in both of their hearts they would love to drop the Republic of China name, symbols, flag and constitution — but they will not do anything about it.
The voters would shoot it down, and even trying would mean losing the support of key supporters like the U.S. and Japan. Oh, and there is also that small detail of war with China, which the CCP has repeatedly made clear would happen if it were even attempted.
To that U.S. official quoted by FT saying it was “difficult to be reassured,” if you trust Tsai Ing-wen as Taiwan’s president, you can be reassured that if elected, Lai Ching-te will be much the same. Respect Taiwanese voters, and do not interfere with Taiwan’s elections again.