TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — TrendForce, a global provider of market intelligence on technology industries based in Taipei, said geopolitical factors have prompted major notebook manufacturers to shuffle their supply chains.
"Vietnam has been one of the beneficiaries of convenient transport of materials from China and has an abundant labor demographic. This has attracted many brands and OEMs as Vietnam is now estimated to account for 10% of full-year notebook shipments in 2023."
A TrendForce research report pointed out that 2022 saw global notebook computer shipments decline quarter by quarter with 186 million units shipped, an annual decrease of 24.5% when compared to 2021.
As for 2023, geopolitics and the global economic situation continue to be unclear as it estimates global notebook shipments will be 171 million units, an annual decrease of about 7.8%.
Weak demand plagued the industry in the fourth quarter of 2022 and consumers' disposable income continues to be squeezed even though notebook brands in North America and China offered many discounts and promotions which did little to spur sales.
Trendforce believes poor sales will lead many major laptop makers to primarily draw down inventories well into the second quarter of the year. This will lead to a decline in laptop production and channel partners will also be conservative and place fewer orders in the first half of the year.
In addition, Lunar New Year is coming earlier than in previous years and with COVID continuing to affect China, the supply of components could be unstable. Due to these factors, TrendForce estimates notebook shipments in the first quarter of this year will drop by 9.5% quarter-on-quarter to 35.1 million units, setting a new low for the same period over the past 10 years.
TrendForce said bickering between the U.S. and China has spilled over to major laptop manufacturers who are considering a reshuffle of their supply chain. U.S. brands are considering future production of notebooks outside of China.
Compal, Wistron, and Foxconn, have all begun to actively promote production at Vietnamese plants this year, expecting 20% of shipments to originate in Vietnam. By 2027, these companies will only have approximately 20-30% of shipments originating in Chinese factories.
TrendForce pointed out that another U.S. brand heavily associated with the consumer product market has been increasing the production capacity in Mexican factories to directly service the North American market. This company is also looking for local partners in India which offer substantial tax advantages as well as the promise of a large domestic population.
