TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — With presidential elections only a year away, Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) is leading the field in a dramatic change, 2.6% ahead of New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) and more than 10% ahead of former Taipei City Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), a poll showed Tuesday (Jan. 17).

The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) conducted the survey from Jan. 9-11, obtaining 1,085 valid results with a margin of error of 2.98%. Lai was elected chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on Sunday (Jan. 15).

In a matchup of the three most likely presidential contenders, Lai would finish first with 34.0%, followed by the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou with 31.4%. Ko, who chaired the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), ended third in the poll with 22.3%.

TPOF Chairman Ying-lung You (游盈隆) saw a dramatic shift from just a month ago. Hou lost 7.3%, while Lai surged by 5% and Ko gained 4.5%. The sudden rise to the top of the current vice president shows that, at the present stage, there is no real steady frontrunner for the 2024 presidential elections, You said.

In the Nov. 2022 local elections, Hou scored a massive victory by being re-elected to a second term as mayor of New Taipei City, but because he had not been able to clearly set out his intentions about the presidency and because he lacked a national platform, his support had been slipping, according to You.

Looking at the support levels for political parties, the DPP led the way with 26%, followed by the KMT at 22% and the TPP at 20%. The New Power Party (NPP) and the Taiwan Statebuilding Party (TSP) received support from 4.3% of poll respondents each, with 21% describing themselves as centrist voters not in favor of any specific political party.