TAIPEI (Taiwan News) —Taiwanese health experts are challenging China’s claim that COVID has peaked in small and medium sized cities around the country.
In particular, health experts called into question a Henan Province official's assertion that 90% of the population in the province are confirmed to be infected or have survived COVID. China’s National Health Commission made a similar assertion on Sunday (Jan. 8) that COVID cases had peaked.
"It is impossible for the virus to develop like this. The real hell has yet to come," said Shieh Chi-chang (謝奇璋) professor at National Cheng Kung University’s Institute of Clinical Medicine, per UDN.
Shieh is an expert in pediatric immunization and doubted the Chinese government claim, saying COVID does not typically transmit in this manner. He expected COVID in China would peak sometime in April and slowly descend in the second half of the year.
He added that China has gone from zero-COVID to a complete opening, failing to make adequate preparations, leading to an explosion in the number of infections and deaths that could cripple the Chinese medical system.
Another health official expressed incredulity at China’s claim. Tan Che Kim (陳志金), an ICU physician at Chi Mei Medical Center in Tainan, said “90% is a figure randomly offered by a local official.”
On Tan’s Facebook page, he questioned peak COVID assertions made by Henan officials as he compared transmission rates to Europe as an example, noting that after three years of the virus spreading, the current infection rate of the national population of each country is about 50% to 60%, while that of Taiwan is 38%, and Singapore is 37%.
He added that although the infection rate of various countries may be underestimated as the country opens up and eases COVID restrictions, it is virtually impossible for Henan Province to reach a 90% infection rate of the entire population in such a short period of time.
Still, according to Chinese media reports, many provinces have reached the peak of the pandemic and some have even shown a downward trend, according to Liang Wannian (梁萬年) leader of the Chinese National Health Commission's COVID Response Expert Team.
However, Taiwanese health experts like Shieh said the virus will take some time to spread in a large area such as China, especially with the upcoming Lunar New Year coming when many travel from cities to the countryside.
Shieh added that China uses inactivated vaccines composed of dead SARS-CoV-2 virus which offer low protection. Even with China using a less effective vaccine, COVID cannot spread that quickly through the population, while comments by Chinese officials were simply posturing to appease the public and the international community, Shieh noted.
It is clear that China is eager to move beyond COVID as quickly as possible. However, the reality of the situation may be the worst is yet to come and the pandemic may continue to affect daily life in China throughout the year.
