TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — According to the latest report by the U.S. think tank the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), China has stepped up pressure on Taiwan, and it ranked a "severe cross-strait crisis' at the highest level among potential conflicts in the world for the third year in a row.

On Wednesday (Jan. 4), the CFR released the 2023 edition of the Preventive Priorities Survey. Since 2008, the CFR's foreign policy experts have evaluated 30 ongoing or potential violent conflicts around the world and divided them into three tiers according to the probability of occurrence in the next year and the degree of impact on U.S. interests.

The report noted that the world "took a dangerous turn in 2022" with the Russian army invading Ukraine, setting off the largest war in Europe in decades. Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and China have ratcheted up over Taiwan.

According to the findings of experts surveyed by the CFR's Center for Preventive Action in November, seven scenarios were included in the Tier 1 contingencies with a moderate probability of occurrence and high impact on U.S. interests. At the top of this list is 'escalating coercive pressure" exerted by China on Taiwan at the military and other levels, triggering a "severe cross-strait crisis" involving the U.S. and many countries in the region.

As the rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified in recent years, the two sides were included in the report for the first time in 2019 due to tensions over Taiwan, with the situation being classified as a Tier 2 contingency that year and in 2020. However, in 2021, the situation was upgraded to Tier 1, and this year marks the third consecutive year that a severe cross-strait crisis has been listed as Tier 1.

The report pointed out that most of the Tier 1 scenarios involve major powers, including the U.S. and China, engaged in a crisis over the Taiwan Strait, the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine that spills into other countries, a power struggle within Russia, or crisis caused by the nuclear weapons programs in Iran and North Korea. Overall, the report asserts that the risk of a military confrontation between the U.S. and China or Russia, or even both, has risen.