TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — According to what are purportedly minutes from Wednesday's (Dec. 21) meeting of China's National Health Commission (NHC) there were nearly 37 million COVID cases reported Tuesday (Dec. 20), while the total number of infections from Dec. 1-20 was 248 million people, accounting for 17.56% of the total population.
On Thursday (Dec. 22), the NHC minutes were allegedly leaked onto Weibo, presenting a picture of China's COVID outbreak that is far more severe than official reports. In the minutes, Ma Xiaowei (馬曉偉), director of the NHC, said that with further adjustments to national epidemic prevention measures, coupled with the large-scale movement of people during the Lunar New year, the outbreak will intensify and the infection rate will increase.
He warned that medical resources in rural areas are insufficient and there are many elderly people with chronic diseases. Once the infections spread to those areas and vulnerable groups, Ma warned the situation will "become more serious."
As of Tuesday, among the provincial-level administrative regions in China, Beijing and Sichuan ranked first and second respectively, with infection rates exceeding 50%. Areas reporting infection rates of 20-50% include Tianjin, Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Anhui, Gansu, and Hebei.
The document reported the estimated number of new infections on Tuesday was 36.99 million, accounting for 2.62% of the total population, and represented an increase from Sunday and Monday's (Dec. 18-19) numbers. As for the rankings by province and region, the top five in terms of infection rate (the number of infected people divided by the total population) on that day were Sichuan, Anhui, Hubei, Shanghai, and Hunan. If ranked by cities (including municipalities directly under the central government), the top four are Chengdu, Lanzhou, Hefei and Shanghai.
Ranking areas by the total number of infections, provinces with more than 20 million infected were led by Sichuan, followed by Henan and Hubei. Areas reporting 10 to 20 million cases were led by Hunan, followed by Hebei, Guangdong, Beijing, Anhui, and Shandong.
In terms of cities with infections totaling more than 5 million people, Beijing reported the most, followed by Chengdu, Wuhan, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing. According to the minutes, these figures come from the "Video and Telephone Conference on Strengthening the Medical Treatment of Patients with COVID" organized by the NHC at 4 p.m. on Wednesday and were reported to the National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention.
The minutes said there are "spatial clustering" characteristics in areas with high incidences of COVID. Among them, the development of the outbreak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing, Lianghu, and Central China is relatively fast, while the progression of the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, northwest and northeast regions is relatively slower.
The minutes said the situation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is at the "high epidemic" stage. Beijing, however, has passed the peak period of the outbreak and has entered the peak period of critical illness and severe illness, with medical treatment facilities facing greater pressure.
As for Tianjin, which is also at the peak phase, it is expected that cases may drop from the peak in the next two to three days. Throughout Hebei Province "the outbreak is fast and the growth rate is relatively fast," and it is expected to enter the peak phase in the next three to five days.
In the Chengdu-Chongqing and Hebei and Hubei areas, the outbreak is developing rapidly. Among these areas, the outbreak in Sichuan Province has rapidly developed to a high level and is the second area after Beijing with an infection rate of more than 50%. Many cities, including Chengdu, are seeing a peak in cases, with healthcare services under great pressure.
As for Chongqing, the outbreak in the main urban area is worse than in the outer suburbs, and it is expected that the city will enter the peak period in about a week. The entire province of Hubei is in the peak stage, and the number of new cases in the past two days has shown signs of fluctuating and declining.
The summary mentioned that since Dec. 1, genetic sequencing has been conducted on 1,100 infected persons in 19 provinces and regions in China, and 12 Omicron variants have been found. The main strains detected are the Omicron subvariants BA.5.2, BF.7, and BM.7.
Of the subvariants, Beijing, Heilongjiang, Guizhou and Xinjiang have a high proportion of BF.7, and other provinces and regions have a high proportion of BA.5.2. Thus far, no new variants have been found with significant changes in transmissibility, pathogenicity and immune escape.
Reuters on Thursday cited UK health data research firm Airfinity, as estimating that 5,000 are likely dying from COVID per day in China. Based on the current situation with the outbreak in China, the firm estimates that 1.3 million to 2.1 million people could die from this COVID outbreak.
The company predicts that China could see peaks, with one peak of 3.7 million per day by mid-January in areas where infections are climbing. This could then be followed by a second peak of 4.2 million per day in other regions that have not yet seen as many cases by March.
According to the firm, infections in Beijing and Guangdong are growing the fastest.
Dr. Lin Xiaoxu (林曉旭), a former U.S. Army research virologist at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, told Radio Free Asia the data disclosed in the above-mentioned meeting's minutes are likely estimates based on a certain model. He said that this can only be used as a reference, indicating the outbreak has become widespread across China.
Lin said what Chinese officials are most worried about is the number of severe cases and deaths, as well as the run on medical resources.
According to the NHC report released on Wednesday, only 3,101 new confirmed COVID cases were reported on Tuesday, of which 3,049 were local cases. No new deaths were reported that day.
Area in red lists total cases at 248 million representing 17.56% of population. (Weibo image)
(Weibo image)