TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — An American public health scientist on Monday (Dec. 19) described China's COVID outbreak as "thermonuclear bad" as hospitals have allegedly become overwhelmed with new cases.
Eric Feigl-Ding, who is an epidemiologist and chief of the COVID Task Force at the New England Complex Systems Institute, on a Twitter thread cited deputy director of the China CDC, Liang Xiaofeng, as saying that COVID may infect about 60% of China's population, which would be the equivalent to 10% of the world's total population. He also warned that deaths are likely in the "millions—plural."
Feigl-Ding quoted human rights activist Jennifer Zeng as alleging that the Chinese Communist Party's COVID policy has become: “Let whoever needs to be infected infected, let whoever needs to die die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production.” He then included footage allegedly showing numerous bodies lying on gurneys in a hospital in northeastern China.
He warned that the time it takes for cases to double may not be a matter of days but rather "hours," according to some experts. R is short for the basic reproduction number (R0) and in the absence of herd immunity, R measures the average number of persons one individual with the virus can infect.
Feigl-Ding said that R is hard to calculate if doubling occurs in less than one day because it is difficult to implement PCR tests that rapidly. He added that the bottom line is that China and the world are "in deep trouble."
The epidemiologist argued that China is greatly underreporting its COVID deaths and pointed out that the Hong Kong media outlet Ming Pao on Sunday (Dec. 18) reported that over 2,700 died in their homes on Dec. 17 from COVID in Beijing. One sign that deaths are substantially underreported is an explosion in funeral services carried out by funeral parlors and funeral industry chains in Beijing.
According to the Ming Pao report, there were 30 bodies piled on the floor of one morgue in Beijing and some funeral homes in the city have acquired refrigerated containers with over 20 to 30 bodies in one container. In addition, the newspaper cited sources as saying that the funeral homes are cremating bodies 24 hours a day.
As to whether the outbreak in China will become "thermonuclear bad" for the rest of the world, Feigl-Ding said it may not be a direct impact from the virus, but warned that the "global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly."
The epidemiologist expressed his opinion that one to two million deaths in China from COVID is plausible and that it could rise higher if the Chinese government does not take measures to lower infections. He asserted that even three doses of Chinese vaccines CoronaVac and Sinopharm may not be enough for the new variants.
However, he said there may be hope with China's new inhaled vaccines as they could produce a wider "mucosal immunity." He wrote that China's new aerosolized nebulizer-inhaled mucosal vaccine appears to be 14.5 times stronger in generating antibodies than CoronaVac.
THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 〔錯誤字元無法儲存〕〔錯誤字元無法儲存〕 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—pic.twitter.com/VAEvF0ALg9
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 19, 2022