TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — With the latest Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) poll showing New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) as the frontrunner in a hypothetical presidential race, it’s no surprise that many are speculating he will run for the office. In every poll held by every pollster in Taiwan over the last few years, he has always ranked as the most popular politician in the country.
Hou was born in Chiayi County in 1957, the son of a veteran turned pork vendor. Though his family had been in Taiwan for generations, his father apparently fought with the KMT in the Chinese Civil War. He would have been 18 in 1946, so probably just missed fighting for the Japanese. However, there is surprisingly little information about him available online.
A string of high-profile cases
Hou rose to prominence as a police officer, and was involved in quite a few high-profile cases that made headlines. He was the policeman who led the charge to break down the door when democracy and free speech activist Nylon Deng (aka Cheng Nan-jung, 鄭南榕) self-immolated in 1989.
He was also involved at the dramatic conclusion of the 1997 Chen Ching-hsing (陳進興) case, negotiating with Chen to try and get his hostages — South African military attaché McGill Alexander and his family — released. He was also tasked with investigating the 319 attempted assassination of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) in 2004.
Tragically, Hou lost his son in a kindergarten bus blaze that left 23 dead in 1992.
Though initially approached by the DPP, Hou ended up accepting the position of vice mayor of New Taipei City at the invitation of then-mayor and current KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫). Should Hou decide to enter the next presidential race, Chu may regret his decision to invite Hou into politics, as Chu himself may decide to run for president again.
A masterful politician
Hou turned out to be a masterful politician. He has mastered the art of deflection, almost always dodging controversial questions on national politics by emphasizing he is concentrated on his job as mayor.
He has done a remarkable job of building a reputation for being humble and devoted to his office. He has also made it clear that he is very willing to work with politicians in other parties to solve practical problems. He has developed good relationships with the mayors of surrounding cities and with ministers in the national government to get things done.
He’s also quite cheeky and at times bucks his own party. In 2018, he famously and very tartly turned down invitations to campaign with then newly-elected Kaohsiung Mayor Daniel Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜). As Han pivoted to run for president only months into his job, Hou said that he was too busy with his new job as mayor, even when Han was campaigning right near Hou’s office. That could come back to bite him, however.
When the party gave orders for their local executives to hold Double Ten National Day flag-raising ceremonies, Hou declined. Instead, Hou posted only a picture of himself holding a little Republic of China (ROC) flag and wished everyone a happy holiday.
Hou's manifesto
The most dramatic example of Hou contravening the KMT was his outright rejection of the party’s platform on public referendums held in January 2022. Prior to the referendums, Hou shared a statement online that was referred to as his manifesto. By sharing his thoughts on the referendums publicly, it was clearly Hou's intention to launch himself onto the national stage with an appeal that would easily cross party lines and attract independents. As is typical of Taiwan's politicians in recent years, the manifesto came in the form of a 1,000-character statement on Facebook.
Will he run for president? It’s hard to say at this point, but his manifesto suggests that he has some ambition towards national politics.
It’s possible he may skip this upcoming election and opt for a later one…or not. He may go for it now while his political star is at its highest.
If he does run, however, it will be much more challenging than it would appear on paper. The obstacles facing a Hou candidacy will be the subject of the next column, so stay tuned.