David Ignatius wrote the following in a recent Washington Post article:

"As for Biden, he has seemed to want it both ways with China: to look tough and conciliatory at the same time. It has not worked very well. He made a mistake in acquiescing to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August. Her trip, however well intended, was ultimately a setback for Taipei, as it led China to tighten its military squeeze on the island. It was a moment where U.S. domestic politics trumped its strategic interests.”

CCP Propaganda and the "Fall Guy"

My friends sent me the Ignatius article and I told them that this paragraph has so many errors and is laden with CCP propaganda that it would take me an entire article to tear it apart. Well, here is the article connected to the G20 meeting in Bali.

First, the White House does not control Pelosi’s overseas travel; she can travel where she wants as a member of the U.S. Congress. The perception that Pelosi's conduct depends on Biden's “acquiescence” is how the CCP totalitarian dictatorship views her actions.

In China, no one can do anything without the approval of the CCP leadership. Democracies have divided power, usually between the executive, the legislative and the judicial.

The article makes Pelosi out to be the "fall guy" and Biden is simply the victim of her whims. False.

Her entire trip was well planned. Recall that Biden and Xi had a two-hour and twenty-minute phone call on July 28, three days before she departed for Asia on July 31.

The Xi and Biden conference call was the fifth time they had communicated since Biden had become president and I recall that President Obama appointed Vice President Biden as his point man for working with Xi. In other words, Biden has had more time with Xi than any other U.S. politician and more time with his CCP counterpart than any other previous president in U.S. history.

According to the Washington Post, Putin gets the award for spending more time than Biden with Xi and that fact should be something to consider in terms of great power competition.

Recall that Pelosi planned to travel to Taiwan in April but tested positive for COVID just before her trip and she delayed her trip to Taiwan. The CCP knew this and found out at least by July 18 from the Financial Times and Reuters that her Asian trip, including Taiwan, was re-scheduled to early August, allowing plenty of time to plan their military exercise which was really an intimidation exercise.

When many people watched her USAF aircraft flying from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Taipei, Taiwan, on Aug. 2, the PLA was also watching and completing their final preparations for their military exercise that would begin on Aug 4.

Another falsehood in the article

Pelosi's visit did not cause the PLA to conduct a military exercise. The CCP needed a convenient excuse to do it and were waiting for the right moment.

U.S. Speaker Newt Gingrich's visit to the country in 1997 did not even ruffle feathers in Beijing, even though in 1995 and 1996 the PLA launched missiles and conducted several similar aggressive exercises, referred to as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, as they had done in August 2022, the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

What did the CCP do to punish the U.S. for Pelosi's visit besides the military aggression exercise conducted Aug. 4-15? They announced the following cancellations and suspensions:

1. Canceling China-U.S. Theater Commanders Talk (U.S. Indo-Pacific Command)


2. Canceling China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT)


3. Canceling China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) meetings


4. Suspending China-U.S. cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants


5. Suspending China-U.S. cooperation on legal assistance in criminal matters


6. Suspending China-U.S. cooperation against transnational crimes


7. Suspending China-U.S. counternarcotics cooperation


8. Suspending China-U.S. talks on climate change

Pelosi's Personal Punishments

According to the CCP's Ministry of Foreign Affairs official website her punishment is as follows: “In response to Pelosi’s egregious provocation, China decides to adopt sanctions on Pelosi and her immediate family members in accordance with relevant laws of the People's Republic of China.” In other words, we do not know what punishment the PRC did to her and her family.

The CCP's action of suspending or canceling bilateral meetings was the first time that the CCP had taken such action, even though Trump administration officials such as Health Secretary Alex Azar had visited Taiwan in August 2020, followed by Under Secretary of State Keith Krach in September, and U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Michael Studeman who is the senior military intelligence official from the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command visited Taiwan in November 2020.

Climate Change

POTUS might have been acting tough against the CCP prior to the U.S. midterms (Nov. 8),but then may offer gifts to Emperor Xi at the Bali G20 (Nov. 16) now that the elections are over.

One area that the administration needs Xi’s cooperation for is their climate change agenda, which Xi is not playing "nice" due to Pelosi's visit to put pressure on the Biden administration. Biden went to Egypt on Nov. 11 prior to Bali for the United Nations COP27 conference on climate change and to Cambodia on Nov. 12 to participate in the annual U.S.-ASEAN summit and the East Asia summit. He will be in Bali from Nov. 13-16, plenty of time for some Xi-bonding that will be pre-coordinated.

The White Press conference before Biden’s departure announced that Biden would be meeting Xi. This means that they have something or something big to announce. What could it be?

The 2024 U.S. presidential campaign starts in Bali

The Bali G20 event will be the beginning of the 2024 presidential election campaign for the Democrats along with Vice President Harris demonstrating her leadership skills at APEC on Nov. 18 and 19.

Biden needs to show his Democratic base that the PRC is back on track with climate change and that he will do almost anything to bring them back to the climate change love circle.

Is anyone taking bets about a Biden statement about a compromise with Xi during the Bali G20?

What compromise areas are available to Biden?

Biden initiated his executive order to stop all U.S. citizens from supporting the PRC's development of semiconductors on Oct 21, surprising many in government, industry, and even the CCP, just two days before the end of the CCP's 20th Congress. Relaxing some of these restrictions to get the CCP on board with climate change could be on the compromise table.

Let us hope that Taiwan is not on the compromise table. Presidents Nixon (1971) and Carter (1979) along with Henry Kissinger (1971) betrayed Taiwan for the PRC.

But the U.S. Congress, the U.S. population, and other administrations fought back with the 1980 Taiwan Relations Act, the 1982 Six Assurances (Reagan), and the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act (Trump). Reagan's Six Assurances promised to Taiwan were:

1. The U.S. has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan


2. The U.S. has not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan


3. The U.S. will not play a mediation role between Taipei and Beijing


4. The U.S. has not agreed to revise the Taiwan Relations Act


5. The U.S. has not altered its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan


6. The U.S. will not exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC

Trump's Taiwan Travel Act stated:

1. The Taiwan Relations Act (22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.), enacted in 1979, has continued for 37 years to be a cornerstone of relations between the United States and Taiwan and has served as an anchor for peace and security in the Western Pacific area.


2. The Taiwan Relations Act declares that peace and stability in the Western Pacific area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States and are matters of international concern.


3. The United States considers any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.


4. Taiwan has succeeded in a momentous transition to democracy beginning in the late 1980s and has been a beacon of democracy in Asia, and Taiwan's democratic achievements inspire many countries and people in the region.


5. Visits to a country by United States Cabinet members and other high-ranking officials are an indicator of the breadth and depth of ties between the United States and such country.


6. Since the enactment of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States and Taiwan have suffered from insufficient high-level communication due to the self-imposed restrictions that the United States maintains on high-level visits to Taiwan.

…It should be the policy of the United States to:

1. allow U.S. officials at all levels to travel to Taiwan to meet their Taiwanese counterparts;


2. permit high-level Taiwanese officials to enter the United States under respectful conditions and to meet with U.S. officials, including officials from the Departments of State and Defense; and


3. encourage the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office and any other instrumentality established by Taiwan to conduct business in the United States.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi was following U.S. law by visiting Taiwan. Anyone who criticizes her for her visit needs to change Public Law No: 115-135.

“Actions speak louder than words”

We will see if Biden’s multiple phrases of support (at least four) for Taiwan will reflect his actions.

Will Biden backdoor the Six Assurances promised by Reagan?

Will President Biden offer to prevent members of his executive team from visiting Taiwan? Will he kowtow to the CCP by placing pressure on the next probable Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy to not go with a large congressional delegation to visit Taiwan?

Will President Biden promise to delay or deny weapons deliveries or future weapon sales to Taiwan as Presidents Carter, Clinton, and Obama have done?

End Game?

President Biden and Vice President Harris will make their 2024 campaign “debut” in Asia. They need to start off strong to counter the recent election losses in the House of Representatives.

Climate change is Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry’s and the Democratic Party’s sacred cow. Without the CCP’s participation, they will appear weak.

On Nov. 7, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called for dialogue to resume with the CCP on defense issues. Sullivan said that we need to get “back on track” to “help create more stability and reduce the risk of misunderstanding.”

Why remind the world that there is a problem unless you know that the problem will be resolved soon? China’s Global Times claims the PRC will be looking for concrete statements and actions by the U.S. What could the U.S. give to the CCP for the resumption of bilateral defense talks?

What price will Taiwan pay for U.S.-PRC reconciliation?

With the CCP's support, the Democrats will show the world their "leadership" but at what cost, especially to Taiwan?

Did Biden, Pelosi, and probably Xi orchestrate the entire sequence of events leading up to the Xi-Biden meeting in Bali?

Perhaps if Biden gives up too much to the CCP's demands to return to bilateral discussions, his actions will erode his base and cause a change in the administration, thereby helping Taiwan gain the moral, political, and military support it needs to counter the CCP’s ongoing aggression. We will see what President Biden says and what actions the U.S. will take soon, to decide what he gave up to Xi. We will be watching you…

“Every move you make

And every vow you break

Every smile you fake

Every claim you stake

I'll be watching you” (lyrics from “Every Breathe You Take,” song by The Police, 1983)