TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Seth Abramson, the author of three books on Trump, is backtracking from a tweet in which he indicated that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could occur after U.S. elections on Nov. 8.
At 7:14 p.m. on Tuesday evening (Nov. 1), Abramson wrote that there is a "real chance" that China would invade Taiwan after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8, while Russia could resort to nuclear weapons. He then warned voters about the prospect of "utter clowns" such as Herschel Walker, J.D. Vance, Blake Masters, and Dr. Oz of being in office if such crises were to occur.
A little over 20 minutes later, James Palmer, the deputy editor of Foreign Policy, countered by tweeting that such an invasion is not imminent as such an assault on Taiwan would be a "massive military operation and there would be enormous visible movement." He added that the fact that such preparations would be clearly visible to the outside world is one of the "biggest" reasons why this is not currently the case.
One hour after his controversial tweet, Abramson issued a "blanket response" to a flood of journalists based in China and Taiwan, who contacted him "en masse." He claimed that the words in his post were "chosen carefully" and based on major media reports included in his tweets. In the response, he emphasized that his tweet was focused on the quality of candidates rather than their party and that he was expressing his concern that the individuals he had mentioned could pose a danger to Taiwan, in addition to China and "global stability," due to their lack of qualifications.
Abramson claimed that in saying that there is a "real chance" of an invasion, he was only echoing what experts have been saying about the possibility of an invasion in 2022 or 2023. However, he stressed that he did not mean that a Chinese invasion is "imminent" or "definite."
He reiterated that his prediction was based on "scores of major media reports" from experts in the field. He closed by claiming that although he has written two national bestsellers that included extensive coverage of China, "I do not consider myself an expert on the China-Taiwan issue."
The timeline for China's invasion of Taiwan appears to be referring to Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Michael Gilday's comment on Oct. 19 that China could potentially invade Taiwan in 2022 or 2023. Abramson has yet to respond to a request from Taiwan News to comment on the sources of his prediction.
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment on "personal speculations."
There’s a real chance China invades Taiwan shortly after the November 8 election, even as Russia’s war in Europe continues to risk going nuclear. Can you imagine if we have utter clowns like Herschel Walker, J.D. Vance, Blake Masters or Dr. Oz in the Senate when all this happens?
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) November 1, 2022
Here is my blanket response to the journalists living in China or Taiwan now contacting me en masse. I choose my words carefully, and my words in my recent tweet on China and Taiwan were chosen carefully and backed up by the major-media reports you can see in my Tweets & Replies. pic.twitter.com/ZpRSxLYEQr
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) November 2, 2022