TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — The outcome of this year’s 9-in-1 elections to be held on Nov. 26, which will see voters pick their representatives from the neighborhood borough level on up to county magistrates and mayors of the “big six” special municipalities, is very hard to predict.
There is a slew of uniquely unprecedented factors that are going to make this election quite an intense ride.
In Parts I and II we looked at how, in a normal election, the Kuomintang (KMT) would be entering this election in a very strong position. Usually, the opposition party does well in these elections, which are often likened to American mid-terms, picking up at least a few seats, especially in elections where the ruling party has been in power for six years, as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has.
Additionally, the KMT currently holds 14 of the 22 regional leadership positions (county magistrates and mayors) and has the advantage of incumbency in most of them, while the DPP is faced with losing political heavyweights in some key races due to term limits. These conditions are probably what gave KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫) the confidence to promise the party would win at least 16 of the 22 leadership positions, and to take over half of the “big six” municipalities, up from two currently.
In earlier columns, we looked at two unusual factors that have the potential to upend traditional election calculus. Factor one is that President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the DPP is, at over 50% approval, surprisingly popular for a leader in power for six years.
Her popularity has no good precedent for us to examine, and if it holds up to election day, what impact might that have? We really do not know.
The second factor is that the KMT’s popularity is at a record low, and some polling shows their support as half that of the DPP. Worse for the KMT, a large chunk of their voting base does not vote for them because they like them, but because they refuse to vote for the DPP. This time around in some key races there are now alternatives in the form of candidates from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), New Power Party (NPP), and independents.
Factor three: China
On most domestic issues like the economy, social welfare, industrial policy, and so forth, DPP and KMT administrations have been remarkably similar, often to the point of one administration simply re-branding and tinkering with the initiatives of the previous administration. The real differences between the two parties are on issues of Taiwanese versus Chinese identity, sovereignty, foreign policy, and how to manage relations with China.
Since the pro-Taiwan Sunflower protest movement, mainstream public opinion has shifted toward the DPP, leaving the KMT with a series of unpopular positions and perceived as being pro-China. That led to two back-to-back landslide victories in national elections for the DPP in 2016 and 2020.
But the “China cleavage” has not traditionally been a factor in local elections, local governments have little impact or influence on these issues. The KMT, in spite of holding unpopular positions as relates to identity and China, still won a landslide victory in the 9-in-1 local elections in 2018.
This year could be different, however. Sharply increased Chinese belligerence toward Taiwan has already become a regular talking point in this election cycle, much more so than in the past.
Missiles flying over your country tend to focus the mind. Unsurprisingly, at the urging of civic groups, many DPP politicians such as Taipei mayoral candidate Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) have been endorsing a stance of “resisting China, protecting Taiwan” (抗中保台, with the 抗 meaning to resist, oppose, fight against or be anti-).
The KMT’s Eric Chu has been trying to talk up his party as being for a strong defense, and local leaders, such as the KMT’s Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕), have also taken strong stands, with Lu attacking her own party for sending a delegation to China and stating:
“Resisting China and protecting Taiwan is, for every citizen, every leader, including the central government and local leaders, a common responsibility. It is not exclusive to one person or one party, and it should not be used manipulatively in elections.”
Lu explicitly used the “resisting China, protecting Taiwan” (抗中保台) formula in that statement. However, aside from her, I’m unaware of any other KMT politician willing to sign off on the “resisting China” portion of that formula, and other pan-blues, such as independent but TPP-backed mayoral candidate Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) twisting herself into knots when asked if she supported the formula, saying instead “we need to unite to protect Taiwan, don’t manufacture antagonism.”
Similarly, Taipei Mayor and TPP party Chair Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) said “protecting Taiwan doesn’t mean we need to resist China.” KMT mayoral candidate Wayne Chiang (蔣萬安) accused the DPP of “manipulating ideology.”
Lessons from Ukraine
It’s not just China’s hostile live-fire military exercises, open belligerence, and missiles that have been concentrating minds in Taiwan, the war in Ukraine also has, by opening a window into what an invasion actually looks like. In particular, the heroic, local resistance by local Ukrainians has been inspiring.
This has caused a sharp uptick in interest in Taiwanese wanting to prepare for defending themselves by building up civilian reserve forces and taking up training. Apps are being released showing the locations of air raid shelters and the government has issued a war survival handbook.
In some voters' minds, preparing to defend Taiwan is actually within the purview of local government responsibility. So, we know the threat from China has become an issue, but how much will this impact the elections?
We do not, and cannot know at this point. Once again, we are in uncharted territory here, as this has not been a factor in previous elections.
Much may also depend on what Xi Jinping and the CCP decide to do between now and the election. How will they try to meddle in the elections, and on what topics?
Will they hold more large-scale military drills and shoot more missiles? Or will they tone it down?
We do not know.
This election is shaping up to be pretty wild, and there are more unpredictable factors, so tune in to my next column for more.
This is Part III in this series, for Part I “Taiwan's unpredictable 9-in-1 elections: KMT hens and a curiously popular president” click here, and for Part II “If this year's Taiwan elections were normal, KMT would win big, but this year is strange” click here.
