TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — When asked for predictions on the outcome of this year’s 9-in-1 local elections, which will see voters choosing candidates from the borough-level up to the “big six” special municipality mayors and county commissioners on Nov. 26, I point out it is still way too early to know.

At this point in the last election, in 2018, the coming “Han wave” that saw a stunning KMT landslide sweep of the nation inspired by then Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the Kuomintang (KMT) was still a cloud forming on the horizon. So far there is no sign of a similar charismatic populist having such a dominant impact on the election.

It does appear that Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) of the KMT is a surprisingly popular choice to appear on the campaign materials of downstream candidates. To a lesser degree, New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) of the KMT is also playing the role of “hen” (母雞), the Taiwan term for a popular upstream candidate who can rally support for downstream candidates, aka “chicks."

While it is likely that Lu and Hou will provide some boost to the KMT “chicks,” there is little chance that Lu will take a charismatic, populist route. She’s a gifted communicator, but so far her politics have largely stayed on the uncontroversial side, nor has she shown any indications of having any larger vision which could animate a full-scale populist movement.

Hou, on the other hand, has shown some indications of having that kind of vision but so far hasn’t played that card in this election cycle, and I suspect if or when he does play it will be in a presidential run. That is, unless in this campaign, his opponent Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) starts to seriously challenge him, which so far he hasn’t been able to.

Even without a populist candidate to upset everyone’s calculations, there are some highly unusual factors that make this election unpredictable. Before we get to those, and some are truly mind-blowing, let’s look at the state of the battlefield.

KMT happy dance

In 2018 the “Han wave” boosted turnout for the KMT and saw it win 15 of the 22 city and county leadership posts, including half of the “big six” mayorships. This included, shockingly, Han Kuo-yu himself winning the DPP stronghold of Kaohsiung — even if he was then later ousted in a recall, leaving the KMT currently holding a still commanding 14 top positions.

That means that in much of the country the KMT has an incumbency advantage, and even better for the KMT most of their leaders have only served one term and can run again for a second term. The DPP, on the other hand, has lost some key popular incumbents to the rules limiting leaders to two terms, which is especially painful for the party in places like Taoyuan.

Also under normal circumstances, the KMT as the opposition party should be in a strong position to pick up seats. Traditionally, the 9-in-1 elections are seen as somewhat similar to American midterm elections, where the opposition party typically picks up some support.

That is what happened in 2018. President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) satisfaction ratings were mostly bouncing around in the 20% to 30% range, and voters surged to the polls in support of the KMT to express their dissatisfaction with her and her administration.

Normally, after six years in power a president’s support is lagging as the administration gets bogged down and voters tire of it. If this were a normal election, the KMT would be doing a happy dance at this point.

It was probably with normal election dynamics in mind that KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫) promised he would lead the party to win 16 of the 22 leadership posts, including winning over half of the “big six.” That seems ambitious, but this election cycle has so many unusual features it is possible he will be proven correct, or it could be a huge loss for the party, and it’s hard to say this early in the game.

An unusually popular president

This brings us to the first weird aspect of this election. Stunningly, President Tsai’s satisfaction ratings have been holding pretty steady in the low-to-mid 50s range since early last year. What will be the impact on the election if her approval continues to hold up through to the November election?

I’m not the only one who has been pondering this, Academia Sinica scholar Nathan Batto has as well, and in a piece written on his Frozen Garlic blog he pointed out:

“In almost all of the recent election cycles, the government has been unpopular. This has meant that the opposition party has had a powerful appeal: send a message to the government and teach them a lesson! There was strong anti-government sentiment in 2018, 2014, 2005/6, and 1997. There was moderate anti-government sentiment in 2009/10 and 2001/2. I think the last time the government was actually popular might have been 1993/4.”

So, theoretically, 1993/4 is the precedent we have to work with. Except it isn’t.

Back then the country had only just started to democratize and the DPP was, to put it mildly, an unorganized gaggle of disparate activists with little actual electoral experience. We’re in totally uncharted territory on this factor.

The fact of the matter is we don’t know how, if the president’s approval holds up, it will impact the election. And it’s not the only improbable and unpredictable factor going into this election cycle.

Tune in to upcoming columns as we examine the other weird and wild things going on that are going to make this election so fascinating to watch.