TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — On Aug. 4, the very first day the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired missiles over Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT) received permission from the Chinese to send a delegation. KMT Vice Chair Andrew Hsia (夏立言), according to reports, “immediately” went to Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC, an organization Hsia used to head) to report the trip and submit the details.
MAC was strongly opposed to the trip but could do nothing about it. Hsia has been out of government for over five years, so he is legally allowed to go.
Although KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫) insisted the trip was not political and was about supporting Taiwanese businesspeople and students in China, it was leaked to the press that Hsia’s submitted itinerary had in fact included the head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) Liu Jieyi (劉結一) and other prominent Chinese officials. Hsia has since confirmed that he had added them to the list submitted to MAC, but did not specify times or meeting places, just that he might “possibly” meet them.
In fact, he may yet meet with those officials, but in a “personal” capacity. He said he was looking for an “appropriate time” to convey the KMT’s opposition to the military exercises, which hints he might be.
A UDN report says that the TAO initially did not want to meet with Hsia and his delegation because they were unhappy with Chu’s trip to America in June, when he said the KMT was “always pro-US and anti-communist.” However, in recent days, the TAO has decided to consider it according to the report.
Spectacularly bad timing
The Hsia delegation set off for China just as China’s hostile live fire military exercises were winding down. As if the optics were not bad enough, the very same day, the TAO and The State Council Information Office released the “The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era” white paper which laid out their plans for annexing Taiwan.
Yes, the same TAO that Hsia might meet with released their plans for ending Taiwan’s existence as a free nation. Talk about timing.
The outcry and outrage at the timing was fierce, even within the KMT. Eric Chu defended the trip, saying it had been planned months earlier, would help reduce the risk of war and that as the situation across the strait got more and more difficult, it was more and more important to maintain dialogue.
The optics did not get any better when a member of Hsia’s delegation, while they were languishing in quarantine, addressed a conference in China repeating the Chinese hosts lines that the KMT “holds fast to the 1992 Consensus” (堅持九二共識) and opposes Taiwan independence. In response to the backlash, the KMT defended his statements by saying it was in line with the constitution, the party’s platform, and that it was for the “benefit of the Taiwanese public.”
The only major KMT candidate in this election who came out in support for Chu and the delegation was Wayne Chiang (蔣萬安), the party’s candidate for Taipei Mayor. He later backtracked somewhat, and called for Hsia to express to China opposition to the military exercises.
The big Lu Shiow-yen surprise
New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) of the KMT, rather mildly chastised in his typical elliptical way the party’s trip as “debatable,” but the KMT figure that came out the quickest, strongest, and fiercest against the trip was a surprise: Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕). I did not see that coming.
Lu is from a 49er family (those who arrived fleeing the Chinese civil war in and around 1949) and while she rarely comments on cross-strait issues, her previous comments on Chinese investment and tourism in Taichung sounded standard KMT. Yet it was her, not Hou, who quickly went on the attack.
So much so that Andrew Hsia, who also served as an advisor to the Taichung City Government, quickly tendered his resignation from quarantine in China.
Her strongest comments on cross-strait issues were delivered on the very day Eric Chu and the KMT formally anointed her their candidate for Taichung. What she had to say was quite interesting.
She kicked off with the formula associated with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), “resist China, protect Taiwan” (抗中保台). She said:
“Resisting China and protecting Taiwan is, for every citizen, every leader, including the central government and local leaders, a common responsibility. It is not exclusive to one person or one party, and it should not be used manipulatively in elections. Taiwan’s democratization has gone on for a long time now, and I trust voters eyes are clear.”
Long-time readers of these columns will know I have my suspicions on the sincerity of many of Eric Chu’s positions, and think his priority is taking stances that will attract votes. However, I get the sense that Lu is sincere, and that she is one of the nearly 90% of the public that objected to the Chinese military exercises.
I do, however, think Lu’s timing and setting to come out with such a strong stance was chosen carefully. I think she is positioning herself as a power player in the runup to the KMT’s big party congress on August 28.
Why didn't the KMT just delay the trip?
Considering all the backlash and uproar this is causing the party, one wonders why they did not just delay it? One clue might be the ending date, August 27, the day before the party congress.
It’s possible that Chu and the party leadership are hoping to get something from this trip ahead of the congress. It appears there are three main purposes to the trip.
One is probably what they have stated it is, to touch base with Taiwanese in China and keep lines of communication open. That could have easily have been delayed, however.
The other two have been reported in various outlets by reporters speaking to party insiders. One is practical, the other worrying.
Follow the money
The practical one is fundraising among the Taiwanese business people or compradors based in China. They have money and many want better ties across the strait for practical and personal reasons, and usually support the KMT.
There are also long-standing concerns that China in the past has funneled funds to the KMT via the Taiwanese business people. It’s easy to hide, they put the money in one pocket, and the Taiwanese comprador pays the KMT out of the other pocket.
While Chu has denied this is the reason for the trip, the itinerary is full of Taiwanese business groups. And with an election coming up, the party needs the money.
On August 11, the Control Yuan released a report on the finances of political parties from 2021, which I found fascinating and illuminating. The first interesting thing is that the KMT has finally stopped haemorrhaging cash and for the first time in years, ran a surplus.
Since the passing of the Ill-gotten Gains Act, the party lost the vast reserves of cash and assets that the party had seized when it was a one-party state. While the party’s income was fine, the party had previously used plum party positions as rewards for loyalty.
That left the party massively overstaffed. They have since let go of a lot of these people, but they are still on the hook for their pensions, and it is a huge burden.
Under personnel costs (人事費用), the KMT’s payout is triple that of the DPP’s, almost certainly due to the pensions. Under professional costs, which presumably cover election-related and promotional expenditures (業務費用), the KMT could only afford barely one-fifth of what the DPP was able to spend.
To fund the election this fall, they will need that money. What better time to bring news of a cash infusion than at the party congress, especially when the already weakened Eric Chu needs to drum up support in the party and hold off challenges.
Placating China
The third reason, according to party insiders cited in multiple publications, is to placate China by explaining Chu’s recent public shift of the KMT to a “anti-Communist, pro-US” stance. Chu has been trying to play both sides on this, for example to US audiences and Taiwanese voters he played down the 1992 Consensus as a “non-consensus consensus,” but for Chinese audiences the KMT “holds fast to the 1992 Consensus.”
Hsia's trip was planned in June. In other words, the very same month of Chu’s trip to the US.
That should set alarm bells ringing. And what makes this trip so important that it needs to be done before the party congress?
What will the Chinese side communicate? What will they demand? What will they offer?
Whatever it is, it is not likely to be acceptable to Taiwanese voters. But it might placate the KMT’s deep-blue wing ahead of the party congress.
