TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A small fleet of modern submarines could help Taiwan build strong deterrence against China, analysts said in an RTI report published on Thursday (Aug. 18).
Michael Thim, a researcher focusing on Taiwan’s defense at the Prague-based think tank Association for International Affairs, said that Taiwan's indigenous defense submarine program is necessary. Though submarines cannot prevent a Chinese invasion on their own, they constitute a strong deterrent force, Thim said.
Subs patrolling in the shallow Taiwan Strait can use surrounding white noise as cover, he said, thus posing a threat to Chinese military transport ships at risk, he said.
Thim also said that in terms of submarine capabilities, Taiwan has been able to hire foreign experts over the years to help with its development plans. The U.S. has so far been the primary partner in providing key submarine technologies, he said.
More countries should be included in the future, such as Japan, which can build excellent submarines, the scholar said. He added that the Hai Chien-class subs acquired by Taiwan in the 1980s have undergone substantial upgrades and can inflict damage on enemy ships, but have little deterrence effect.
China currently has about 60 conventional submarines that can be used to carry out maritime blockades, he pointed out.
Seth Cropsey, the former U.S. deputy undersecretary of the Navy, suggested Japan hand over its retired submarines to Taiwan to strengthen the nation’s maritime defense capabilities.
Holmes Liao (廖宏祥), a former National Defense University distinguished lecturer, pointed out that in 2021, the People's Liberation Army dispatched 961 fighter jets into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, 17% of which were variants of the Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft.
Given this unusually high statistic, submarines from the U.S. Navy, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, or other foreign naval forces may be in Taiwan's waters, but Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense rarely discloses these activities, Liao said.
The Taiwan Navy currently only has four conventional submarines, of which two are Hai Shih-class subs from World War II, and the other two are the above-mentioned Chien Lung-class ships built by the Netherlands in the early 1980s.
Taiwan’s first domestically produced submarine is expected to be launched next September, a person familiar with the matter said on July 12.
