TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Analysts on Tuesday (July 26) assessed the consequences of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan following the Russia-Ukraine war during the Ketagalan Forum—2022 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue.
Former U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian war has impacted the international order, and countries that value democracy and sovereignty should immediately strengthen alliances to sanction Russia and support Ukraine, CNA reported. He said that both Russia and China originally expected seizing Ukraine would be relatively quick.
However, the Russian military suffered serious casualties, and the disastrous results have shocked Xi Jinping (習近平), Mattis said. The Russian army could easily mobilize troops near the land border with Ukraine, but the attack on the eastern European nation encountered many problems, he said.
The former defense secretary noted that the Taiwan Strait is approximately 180 kilometers wide and launching an amphibious operation against Taiwan is a much more uncertain and risky undertaking for China. These factors serve to remind Xi not to haphazardly use force against Taiwan.
Jayadeva Ranade, director of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, an Indian think tank, expressed a similar view. He said that the failure of Russia's attack on Ukraine and the Western economic sanctions have worried top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials because most of their children are studying in the U.S., per CNA.
If China is sanctioned for attacking Taiwan, their children would have to return to China, and their foreign assets would also be frozen, he said.
However, Ranade said that would not change Xi's aggressive policies. Through constitutional amendments, Xi has emphasized the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will impact many countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, Taiwan, and India.
Ranade also said that Putin's invasion of Ukraine was fully supported by Xi. The two leaders met before the war and issued a joint statement expressing support for each other's core interests and opposing foreign forces interfering in internal affairs or undermining the security of the two countries' borders.
Their rationalization of the war against Ukraine also echoes China's tough stance on Taiwan and India, Ranade said.
Robin Niblett, director of U.K. think tank Royal Institute of International Affairs, said Putin's invasion of Ukraine was aimed at rebuilding territory lost by the Soviet Union after the Cold War. Niblett said he was concerned that Ukraine's full propensity to the West would be detrimental to Russia’s fight against the U.S.
Similarly, Taiwan, Tibet, and Hong Kong are also unfinished historical tasks for the CCP, Niblett said. Even though Taiwan has not achieved de jure independence, it is worried about the fact that Taiwan and China are permanently separated, which not only detracts from the status of China's rulers but also hinders the authoritarian nation’s struggle for global power, he said.
Niblett said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, coupled with Russia's alliance with China, has led to many Pacific countries supporting the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU on Russia. He said that this is an Atlantic-Pacific partnership, and this relationship will enhance the roles of the U.S. and the EU in the Indo-Pacific region.
Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College of Australian National University, said the Russia-Ukraine war has made Australians aware of existing threats and reinforced public opinion in favor of a regional alliance. This is a phenomenon not seen a few years ago, he said.
Former Japanese Deputy Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama said that democratic partners should pay more attention to the importance of cybersecurity and global supply chains. He also said that Taiwan is not only a friend of Japan, but also a family member.
He reiterated that an emergency in Taiwan is also an emergency in Japan.
