TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Given that Taiwan is slowly relaxing its COVID-19 restrictions, the number of infections will remain high until September, National Taiwan University (NTU) epidemiologist Lee Ping-ing (李秉穎) estimated Thursday (April 14).

He spoke as the number of cases approached the 1,000-mark, with a single-day record of 874 local infections plus 108 imported cases reported that day. Some experts predict the daily number of local cases could reach 10,000 before the situation improves.

In a radio interview, Lee said that according to the experience of other countries, a loosening of COVID restrictions typically results in infections rising steeply to at least 10,000 a day but falling rapidly afterward.

While Taiwan has been relaxing its restrictions, it has done so with a gradual step-by-step approach that has slowed down the increase, but a consequence of this is a slower fall later, said Lee, who also serves as the convener of the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

He predicted a painful four or five months ahead before the pandemic loosens its grip and is downgraded to a lower level, CNA reported. In the meantime, the 10-day quarantine requirement for medical staff who have been in close contact with COVID patients should be relaxed or there could be a shortage of personnel, Lee cautioned.

At present, the two main weak points of Taiwan’s anti-COVID efforts are the low vaccination rate of the elderly and the absence of vaccines for children between the ages of 5 and 11, he said. Lee called on the authorities to step up emergency use authorization reviews for the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines for children.