TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As the world reels from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and looks to China and Taiwan, two Indian scholars have said Beijing is unlikely to stage an invasion in the short term.
China is more likely to launch an attack on Taiwan, or even India and Japan, if Russia went to war with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states for Ukraine, Vijay Kranti, the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) School of Journalism and Communication Chair, told CNA.
If that were the case, the U.S. and other NATO allies would be too preoccupied to respond to China’s invasion. Kranti added that he personally believes the U.S. would put Ukraine before Taiwan, as its allies are all involved in the Ukraine crisis, and anti-Russian sentiment has persisted for decades.
According to Kranti, China would remain silent about Taiwan at the moment to avoid attracting the international community’s attention.
“Beijing will first let the war in Ukraine get worse and wait until NATO member states, the U.S., and Russia are too deeply involved, until after there is no way to turn things around, before it takes its next step with Taiwan.”
He called for India, Japan, and Taiwan to build connections and support each other to avoid being brought down individually.
CNA also cited Gaurie Dwivedi, author and visiting scholar at the United Service Institution of India as saying that although China may see the Ukraine crisis as a model for invading Taiwan, it would not go as far as escalating its provocations against Taiwan immediately. She believes that given the instability of current circumstances, any action China takes would trigger a strong reaction from the U.S.
However, if the Ukraine crisis ends similarly to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, in which Russia faced no severe sanctions, China would be encouraged by its example.
“China will observe whether or not EU member states are united in their sanctions against Russia, even at the cost of rising energy costs and inflation rates,” Dwivedi said.
“If the EU and the U.S. are able to pass these challenges, any decision (of China’s) to increase provocation against Taiwan will be impacted.”
