TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) is learning a number of important lessons from the Ukraine crisis that could give his country the edge it needs to successfully take over Taiwan in the coming years, according to one analyst.

In an opinion piece for Nikkei, a senior fellow at U.S.-based think tank the German Marshall Fund, Minxin Pei, describes how the Ukraine crisis has already benefited Xi by distracting the U.S. from countering China and by bringing Russia closer into China's strategic orbit.

In addition, Pei says Xi is gleaning insight into what has likely caused the U.S. to step back from defending Ukraine, and this may lead to China doubling down on efforts to boost its firepower in order to deter the U.S. from defending Taiwan. Xi is also watching to see how Russia handles economic sanctions, probably concluding China will need to protect its access to vital technology better than Russia has, Pei adds.

Xi is also observing how Putin is sowing disunity among NATO countries and will want to replicate these tactics and try to weaken alliances in the Indo-Pacific and discourage other powers from joining the U.S. in a defense of Taiwan, continues Pei, who believes that like Putin, Xi prefers to absorb Taiwan without the destruction of a full-scale invasion and that he will try to remain flexible to achieve this goal.