TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — While the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic is likely to force Taiwan’s economic growth down to 0.2 percent for 2020, it is likely to rebound sharply to 3.7 percent in 2021, Moody’s Investor Survey said in a report Wednesday (July 1).

The main factors behind the optimism are the expected continued “reshoring” or returning of Taiwanese corporations from overseas to invest at home, and a renewed appetite on the part of global consumers for the country’s electronics exports, Moody’s said.

Exports are what pushed down Gross Domestic Product projections for this year below the government’s initial plan to keep growth above 2 percent, but Taiwan’s resilience was based on “export similarities with China, high competitiveness, technological prowess, and skilled labor pool,” according to the report.

Economic reforms offsetting the aging population and improving relations with China would strengthen Taiwan’s position while worsening cross-strait ties and a more negative impact from the trade war would damage the island’s credit rating, it said.

Earlier forecasts for this year’s economic growth included a 1.58 percent growth forecast by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) in April and a negative 4 percent seen by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier in the year.