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Academic predicts landslide win for KMT in legislative elections

Academic predicts landslide win for KMT in legislative elections

A vote simulation showed that the opposition Kuomintang is expected to post a landslide victory in the January 12 legislative elections, grabbing almost two-thirds of the 113 seats, a researcher said yesterday.
Lin Jih-wen, a researcher at Academia Sinica (中央研究院), said during the annual Taipei-Seoul Forum held in Taipei that according to his calculations, the KMT is expected to win 72 seats in the elections, while the ruling Democratic Progressive Party is expected to win 38 seats.
Calculating the vote share in the township within the 73 single-member districts, Lin concluded that the DPP won't be able to win more than 25 district-based seats, adding that it may win 13 of the at-large seats to be allotted to the various political parties based on the percentage of the total vote they each garner. Only political parties that manage to win at least 5 percent of the total vote cast in the polls will be eligible to secure at-large seats. The KMT is likely to grab 72 seats, while other parties will win the rest, he said.
A "single-member constituency, two votes" system will be used for the first time in Taiwan's election history, with 73 of the 113 legislators to be chosen from the districts, 34 to be selected in a nationwide district, and six chosen from indigenous districts.
Lin predicted that the DPP's failure in the legislative elections will impact the party's campaigning strategy.


Updated : 2021-04-13 07:23 GMT+08:00