TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Before the previous poll of polls released on Nov. 25, all but three polling outfits had been holding off for two weeks waiting to see who would register as candidates on Nov. 24.
With registration passed, 13 polls were released in the last five days. All but one of the polls showed Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) ahead, but a few notable ones including the highly-rated Gallup and Want Want China Times had Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) within the margin of error behind Lai.
The biggest outlier poll was the low-weighted Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF), which had Taiwan People's Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) in first place. Nine of the other 12 had Hou leading Ko in second place, with three showing Ko pushing Hou into third place.
The big news is the jump in support for Hou, breaking well out of the narrow band he had been in between Sept. 1 and Nov. 20. Excluding the four polls that included data from before registration day, Hou does slightly better at 29.08%.
There has been no similar boost for either the Lai or Ko, both of which are still well within the range they have been polling in since Sept. 1.
This is a weighted average of surveys released over the last 15 days. For more information about how individual polls are weighted, click here. (Taiwan News graphic)