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Taiwan to experience warm, dry winter due to El Nino

Central Weather Administration says El Niño will weaken northeasterly monsoon winds, continental cold air mass

CWA illustrates how El Nino will affect Taiwan. (CWA image) 

CWA illustrates how El Nino will affect Taiwan. (CWA image) 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Central Weather Administration (CWA) predicted warmer temperatures with reduced rainfall in its winter weather outlook, citing the El Niño phenomenon.

In November, the CWA expects northeasterly monsoon winds to be weak and the temperature across Taiwan to be warmer. Rainfall will also be low as the El Niño phenomenon continues to develop and strengthen over the next few months, per Liberty Times.

The CWA said that winter in Taiwan typically runs from November to January. During this time, the temperature will drop, with rainfall in windward areas such as the northeastern and northern areas easily occurring while leeward areas such as the central and southern areas enter the dry season.

The CWA said weak northeasterly monsoon winds will lead to higher monthly average temperatures in December. However, in January next year, a cold, high-pressure system in China will be at its strongest, which will cause occasional cold currents or strong continental cold air masses to affect Taiwan.

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has maintained an upward trend, and the average value from July to September has reached 1.3. If this indicator remains above 0.5 the following month, it will indicate an El Niño event, which is expected to extend into 2024.

The CWA said that El Niño will strengthen southwesterly winds near Taiwan, allow warm tropical air to move in, and weaken northeasterly monsoon winds. This will lead to warmer temperatures across Taiwan, with mild winters and hotter summers the following year.

Changes in sea temperature will also aid southwesterly winds and create an environment conducive to spring rainfall, which CWA expects to increase next year.