TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Central Weather Bureau's (CWB's) latest model for Tropical Storm Nalgae shows it on a path closer to Taiwan than previously predicted early next week.
A tropical depression that was located in the waters to the east of the Philippines at 8 a.m. this morning intensified into Tropical Storm Nalgae, the 22nd tropical cyclone of the year. The latest CWB map of Nalgae's projected path shows it impacting the northern Philippine island of Luzon on Sunday (Oct. 30), before swinging north in the direction of Taiwan on Monday (Oct. 31).
CWB forecaster Chang Cheng-chuan (張承傳) said that Nalgae is currently expected to near Luzon on Oct. 29 and the latest data shows that it may come closer to Taiwan than previously expected.
It is now believed that Nalgae will most likely roll northward along Taiwan's east coast. However, some models have the tropical cyclone heading westward to the South China Sea instead.
Map of Tropical Storm Nalgae's projected path. (JTWC image)
According to Chang, Nalgae will continue to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines, but it may weaken when it passes over Luzon. Chang said that Nalgae's future path will depend on its speed.
If its speed is slow, it may come closer to Taiwan, while a faster speed could result in it heading toward the South China Sea, said Chang. He said Nalgae's ultimate path will not become more clear until Saturday or Sunday (Oct. 29 or 30) when it comes closer to Taiwan, and he said the CWB may issue a sea warning by that time.
From Sunday to Monday (Nov. 1), Chang said that Taiwan will begin to feel the impact of the cyclone's periphery. Although the intensity of a northeast monsoon is not significant, the extent to which Nalgae affects Taiwan's weather will depend on its speed and direction.
Chang said that during that period, rainfall will be likely in northern Taiwan and the eastern half of the country, while rain is also possible in mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan. He said that if Nalgae ends up on a path that brings it closer to the country, the area impacted by rain will be more extensive.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Nalgae. (NOAA GIF)