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'Unfriendly' Taiwanese expected to stymie Chinese invasion

'Expert' commentary in China worries mountainous terrain, allied forces could prevent Taiwan from being overrun

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A military reservist trains in Taiwan. (Military News Agency photo)

A military reservist trains in Taiwan. (Military News Agency photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwanese are expected to have an "overwhelmingly unfriendly attitude towards Chinese forces" in the event of an invasion, according to an article on the subject on Saturday (June 4) in the South China Morning Post.

Based on a Naval and Merchant Ships magazine report, distributed by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, the article addresses the problems faced by Russia in Ukraine and looks at the lessons learned. Taiwan's mountainous terrain, unfriendly locals, and the support of allies are all mentioned as potential pitfalls to an invasion of Taiwan by China.

“Ukraine has exploited Russia’s weaknesses … and successfully forced Russia to change its strategies,” the original Naval and Merchant Ships commentary states. “How this success was achieved can hardly exclude factors such as NATO and the United States. And it’s not difficult to imagine that Taiwan would receive guidance, plans, intelligence, experience and training (from NATO and the US) too.”

Surprise attacks will be difficult for China to achieve, the article continues, because the small number of main roads offers Chinese forces limited options for attack. Another problem would be the "overwhelmingly unfriendly attitude of the Taiwanese towards Chinese forces."

To deal with this situation, the article suggests keeping Taiwan's army outside cities, persuading Taiwanese to stay at home, and cutting off internet access when necessary. “If the Taiwanese forces chose to forcefully occupy residential areas … we can use medium and small-sized drones to gather intelligence and perform precision strikes.”

A researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, Zhou Chenming, was cited by SCMP as being more optimistic about the chances of an invasion. In Wang's opinion, Russia should have prepared better for its attempted takeover of Ukraine and China would not make the same mistake.

“Ukraine and Taiwan cannot be compared. The Chinese forces have enough strategies and forces to destroy targets in Taiwan.”