TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A ex-Soviet officer and military analyst on Saturday (March 19) predicted that Russia will begin to feel a major impact in the coming weeks from the loss of Taiwan-made technology.
It has been a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, and after its original planned blitzkrieg failed, the Russian army fell into a quagmire. In an interview over the weekend, a retired Soviet officer assessed that the Russian military will be severely depleted within two weeks due to an exhaustion of resources and that technology made in Taiwan will be one of the key factors.
Asahi Shimbun reported that Agil Rustamzade is a former Soviet officer from Azerbaijan who served in the military for 30 years, including the wars for Nagorno-Karabakh. During an interview with Aleksandr Kushnar on the YouTube news channel Newsader on Saturday, Rustamzade said the invasion of Ukraine was a poorly planned strategy and that although Russia was known as the world's second-largest military power before the war, it has been exposed.
Rustamzade observed that Russia has relied on World War II-style armaments and tactics revolving around infantry and tanks rather than suppression by precision-guided weapons. He also noted that Ukraine's stubborn resistance was completely unexpected and predicted this "special military operation" would eventually fail.
He pointed out that Russian troops invading from the north have suffered heavy losses and failed to maintain their logistical supply lines, while supplying Russian forces in southern Ukraine from Crimea has gone more smoothly.
In addition, Rustamzade said Russian casualties are very high. He said that although Putin has promised not to send conscripts to the front lines, even military cadets have been seen entering battle, making it appear as if "the entire army has been wiped out" with only reserve soldiers left to fight.
The analyst criticized Russian's execution of the war as reckless, with soldiers not being informed why they were fighting from the beginning. Now that the army has suffered at least 10,000 casualties, even if troops can be mobilized from the rear and overseas, the loss of such a large amount of weapons and equipment will be difficult to replace.
As the war has worn on, even ammunition supplies are now insufficient, said Rustamzade. In the absence of air supremacy, the Ukrainian army has used Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles supplied by the West to pound the Russian army.
The severe economic sanctions against Russia are another reason why Rustamzade is not optimistic about the war's outcome for Russia. He said that the sharp increase in military costs will exceed Russia's economic output.
Rustamzade then highlighted the fact that amid various sanctions and embargoes, Russia can no longer import Taiwan-made GPS receivers. He said most electronic components are made in Taiwan and China, cannot be produced in Russia, and that when stocks run out, it will have a major impact.
The analyst predicted that once this key electronic component is used up, the Russian army's military will "soon be unable to hit their targets within the next two weeks."