Tropical Storm Neoguri forms, could bring rain to Taiwan over weekend

Tropical Storm Neoguri shifts west toward Taiwan, predicted to strike N. Philippines

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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Tropical Storm Neoguri (浣熊) formed early this morning (Oct. 18) and has shifted slightly westward toward Taiwan, but forecasters do not currently expect it to continue on a path toward the island.

At 2 a.m. today, Tropical Storm Neoguri, the 20th tropical storm of the year, formed, and forecasters believe it will likely strike the northern Philippines. According to the latest update by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Neoguri is 980 kilometers southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip, Eluanbi, or about 1,000 kilometers southeast of Taipei.

Neoguri is moving slowly westward at a speed of 13 kilometers per hour (kph) and has a radius of 80 kilometers, according to CWB data. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 64 kph with gusts of up to 90 kph.


CWB map showing Neoguri's predicted path.

WeatherRisk Explore Inc. President Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) said that as Neoguri approaches the Bashi Channel and the Philippine island of Luzon, its periphery will drive warm, moist air to the north. Peng predicts that from Saturday to next Sunday, moisture from the slow-moving storm's periphery will combine with northeasterly winds to create an accompanying effect, likely bringing rain to New Taipei City, Keelung, Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung.

As to whether Neoguri could intensify into a typhoon, Peng said that there still is room for it to grow in the Western Pacific. However, Peng predicted it is more likely to head toward the northern Philippines or turn north toward Japan.

Peng said there is a chance Neoguri could strike Taiwan but that the odds are low. He concluded that typhoon season has yet to end and that more storms could be on the way this year.


Japan Meteorological Agency map of Neoguri's projected path.

As for the weather today, northeasterly winds could bring scattered showers to Keelung, Yilan, and mountainous areas of greater Taipei and central and southern Taiwan. In terms of temperature, it will be cooler in the morning, with low temperatures ranging between 21 and 24 degrees Celsius and highs of 27 to 29 degrees in northern and eastern Taiwan, while central and southern Taiwan will see highs of between 31 and 32 degrees.


NCDR map showing models of six different weather agencies.


Map from Peng Chi-ming's Facebook page.