New Taiwan dollar an unexpected winner of US-China trade war

Investors see Taiwan stocks as a safe haven and the currency showed its first quarterly appreciation since 2018

An unexpected trade war winner? (Pixabay)

An unexpected trade war winner? (Pixabay)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The New Taiwan dollar appears to have become an unexpected winner of the U.S.-China trade war, according to Bloomberg.

Thanks to an influx of foreign capital and investments from companies involved in the tariff war, the New Taiwan dollar showed its first quarterly appreciation since 2018, climbing 0.1% against the U.S. dollar in the third quarter. The performance was second only to the Thai baht among all the Asian currencies.

Emerging markets economist Zhou Hao, of Commerzbank AG, said: “Taiwan was originally expected to be one of the most impacted economies from the U.S.-China trade war, but the results are much better than expected.”

The data showed that Taiwan performed better than China and South Korea. Zhou added the local economy has benefited from Taiwanese businessmen and investments returning from China. Investors also see Taiwan stocks as a safe haven.

It would also appear that Taiwan has a better capacity to withstand the test of a trade war than most of its neighbors. The Central Bank of Taiwan recently raised its forecast for economic growth in 2019 to 2.4%.

However, the world trade outlook is still the the biggest variable for Taiwan’s currency. According to Bloomberg’s economist median forecast survey, the exchange rate for the New Taiwan dollar will reach 31.5 against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year. The estimates range from 30.9 to 32 yuan.