Tropical storm with Taiwan track could form tomorrow

Tropical Storm Bailu expected to form tomorrow with Taiwan potentially in its sights

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models of Bailu's path.

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models of Bailu's path.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) -- A tropical storm is expected to take shape on Wednesday (Aug. 21) and early models have it on tracks anywhere from the Ryukyu Islands to Taiwan.

Wu Der-rong (吳德榮), an adjunct associate professor of atmospheric sciences at National Central University, said that Tropical Storm Bailu could take shape as soon as Wednesday. Wu said that it appears to be on a path to move northward toward northern Taiwan and Japan's Ryukyu Islands, but it could possibly make landfall somewhere in eastern or northeastern Taiwan.

The latest models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United States Global Forecast System (GFS), and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) show that a tropical storm could form sometime between Wednesday and Friday (Aug. 23). The models currently have the tropical storm heading somewhere between northern Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, with a possibility of making landfall in Taiwan.

CWB satellite map showing tropical depression to the east of the Philippines.

However, Wu emphasized that much more observation is needed to determine with more certainty the future path of the tropical storm and what, if any, impact it will have on Taiwan, and when.

As for the weather today, Central Weather Bureau (CWB) forecaster Liu Pei-teng (劉沛滕) said that there is a development of a mesoscale low-pressure system and strong convection near the southern coast of Taiwan today. This will likely bring short-term heavy rainfall in central and southern Taiwan, prompting the CWB to issue a heavy rain advisory for Kaohsiung City and Pingtung County.

Heavy rain could also occur in northern and eastern Taiwan. The probability of rainfall is high in the daytime, with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon due to the thermal effect.

CWB satellite map showing tropical depression to the east of the Philippines.

Brief showers are likely in southern Taiwan after nightfall, while the chances of rain in other areas will be reduced. As for temperatures, the mercury will range between 23 and 32 degrees in northern Taiwan, 24 and 31 degrees in central Taiwan, 24 and 31 degrees in southern Taiwan, and 23 to 32 degrees in eastern Taiwan.