TAIPEI (Taiwan News) -- President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would beat Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), itinerant Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), or Foxconn tycoon Terry Gou (郭台銘) in a three-way matchup for the Taiwan presidency, according to the results of a poll released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (台灣民意基金會) on Monday (June 24).
According to the foundation's poll on the 2020 Taiwan presidential race, 36.9 percent of respondents chose Tsai, 29.4 percent opted for Han, and 27.5 percent went for Ko. In the event Gou was the official Kuomintang (KMT) candidate instead of Han, Tsai still had a significant lead at 35.5 percent, followed by 28.1 percent for Ko, and Gou in last at 26.1 percent.
In terms of demographics, Ko had an "absolute advantage" with voters under the age of 40, but a disadvantage with voters over the age of 55. Han polled best among voters between the ages of 45 and 60, while Tsai had an absolute advantage with voters over the age of 60. If Gou was the KMT candidate, the numbers would be the same, with Gou taking Han's position with voters between the ages of 45 and 60.
As for political party affiliation, 70 percent of Tsai's supporters were affiliated with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while 70 percent of Han's backers identified with the KMT. Ko, however, lacked support from members of either major party, with the 27 percent choosing him mainly not listing a party affiliation. If Gou was in the race, 67 percent of DPP supporters would back Tsai, 54 percent of KMT supporters would opt for Gou, and 37 percent of independent voters would go for Ko.
Chart from Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation showing Tsai ahead of Han and Ko.
When it came to picking the top choice for KMT candidate, 29 percent of those surveyed chose Gou, 26.7 percent selected former New Taipei Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫), 26.4 percent opted for Han, 2.3 percent went for former Taipei County Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋), and 0.5 percent backed National Taiwan University political science professor Chang Ya-chung (張亞中). The results show that if Gou was the KMT candidate instead of Han, more KMT voters would select Ko.
In terms of satisfaction with Tsai's performance, 48 percent of respondents said that they agree with Tsai's way of dealing with national issues, while 40 percent disagree. An analysis of the poll report shows that Tsai's long downward trend in public opinion has significantly reversed.
As for satisfaction with Premier Su Tseng-chang's (蘇貞昌) performance, 52 percent of respondents were satisfied with Su's performance, much higher than the 38 percent who were dissatisfied.
Chart from Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation showing Tsai ahead of Ko and Gou.