• Directory of Taiwan

Taiwan Economy might face four major risks next year: Fubon Bank

Fubon analysts estimate Taiwan's economic growth in 2019 will be around 2.41%

Fubon Financial tries to expand its business in South Korea.

Fubon Financial tries to expand its business in South Korea. (CNA photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Fubon Financial Holding Company (FHC), a Taiwan-based financial investment management company on Nov. 3 held a seminar where it pointed out the four major obstacles to economic growth in 2019 and announced an estimate of the economic growth (GDP) around 2.41%.

One of the guest speakers at the forum, Taiwanese financial expert Lo Wei (羅瑋) said that the Taiwan economy might face four major economic risks in the year 2019, including the U.S.-China trade war, fluctuations to the U.S. economy, possible downturn in Chinese economic growth, and outflow of foreign funds to emerging markets such as Indonesia, India, and Thailand, CNA reports.

According to Reuters, a recently updated economic outlook of the U.S. said that real gross domestic product would grow 2.4 percent next year, as growth in business investment and government purchases slow.

He added that if infrastructure and tax 2.0 reforms are not passed under bipartisan support, the U.S. economic growth rate is likely to slow down to 2.2%. Meanwhile, Taiwan's economic growth rate is estimated to be 2.4%, and China will see a further drop to 6.2%.

Luo said that after two consecutive years of rapid growth in the capital market, the stock market will face limited acceleration next year.

As for foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar was relatively strong in the first half of the year. Once the European Central Bank put a stop to negative interest rates, the Euro and the Japanese Yen will surge, and developing countries with poor management systems will face pressure from capital outflows.